What is your opinion of the A.J. Pierzynski signing?
MJH on accountability
Just saw Peter Gammons on the MLB Network this morning giving his daily offseason opinions. He said that there is a strong belief that Prince Fielder will end up in Arlington next year. Also said that Hamilton will most likely leave once he becomes a free agent after 2012 season. Further, he said that SEATTLE would be a really nice fit for C.J. Wilson.
How much stock should we all put into Peter Gammons? Remember last year he felt strongly that Cliff Lee would return to Texas.
What do you guys think?
I'm becoming more open to seeing Prince here, though I still have reservations about the cost and the potential for health issues, however remote it may be.
Anyone know why Josh would want to go anywhere? I haven't heard anything thus far about why he wouldn't like it here.
Now, C.J. in Seattle....that seems like a very remote possibility. C.J. has stated repeatedly that playing for a contender is important to him. I find it hard to believe that Seattle will be a contender for a few years, and C.J. probably doesn't want to spend what's left of his prime time playing for a team that probably won't sniff the WS for a while. I won't say C.J. would never go somewhere like Seattle, but I think they'd have to pay him an awful lot of money - like, probably at least $10-20m more than what he's offered by a contending team like us or Boston or NYY - for him to even consider it.
To be fair to Peter, though, Cliff did show some interest in returning here. Apparently though, we weren't willing to give him enough more than Philly would have in order for him to overlook the things he liked about Philly. And we've discussed this topic a lot, so I'll stop there for now. Still, it's hard to take predictions like this, before the offseason has actually even started, with more than a grain of salt.
Read not too long ago by some wizard of smart, that he felt the Rangers would make a strong push for Pujols or Fielder, take the hit financially for one season, and then let Hamilton walk the season after. It would be one season of probably one of the game's historically best offenses, then what would be left would be Hamilton's replacement both in terms of batting position and money. Would be a really good move imo, but should be secondary to pitching endeavors.
Just say NO to Prince Fielder... unless you want a prince Albert in your payroll when he eats his way out of a job.
I'm in agreement with mhilgtx. I don't know why, but I just can't shake the feeling that Prince Fielder is the next Mo Vaughn.
I agree with Andy 100% on CJ. He wants to win. Seattle already has a pretty good core and I'm not sure CJ would even be a #2 there with the promise Pineda shows.
I think Jost leaving in 2012 would have more to do with the club not wanting him back as much as Josh not wanting to be here. Leonys is on his way and also brings a LH bat and with Hamilton's injury history the club may opt to bring in someone more dependable. Just a matter of how high they want to take the payroll.
I'm not too interested in Prince. Yet.
Yu Darvish/Fielder or Wilson/Fielder would be awesome. Imagine the potential lineup with Fielder
1. Kinsler2. Hamilton3. Young4. Fielder5. Beltre6. Napoli7. Cruz8. Andrus9. Martin (maybe haha)
Cj to Seattle doesn't make any sense unless they are willing to unload Hernandez or Pineda for some bats. They have good pitching (can't believe they traded Fister) and need some run support.
I would love to have Prince. He would would push for a 50 hit season hitting in Arlington in the summer. I can't see Josh wanting to go anywhere else... I hope they can keep him around too. He's an important part of this team.
Someone also mentioned Joey Votto a few weeks ago. Not sure what he would cost in return, probably too much, but he would be a nice addition.
I think Prince Fielder is different than Vaughn because he has a significantly lower K rate, and a significantly higher BB rate.
Also, if you look a Vaughn's career, he lost his dominant offense immediately after switching from Fenway to the Angels ballpark, which are significantly different run environments. RBiA would benefit Fielder over Milwaukee, I think.
If you look at the way the Rangers are structured right now, I don't see first base as an area of particular need. Moreland took a huge step back this season, but Kinsler indicated there were injury concerns. Also, and this is eschewing the stats I so dearly love, but Moreland often looks really good. See his performance against the Giants in the WS last year, or that monster jackdaddy against Carpenter. Major league pitchers made an adjustment this year, and started pitching him away. I expect Moreland to work with Coolbaugh (who has helped Rangers hitters make these kinds of adjustments before, see Napoli) to work around this problem. Worst case scenario, we can always run the face of the franchise out there, which arguably we have to do anyway to maintain his leader status. So it goes.
Even though the Sox and Yankees are set at 1B, limiting the mega-contract Fielder ends up with, I am not thrilled about overpaying to get an arguably marginal offensive upgrade when other aspects of the team (rotation, BP if Feliz joins the rotation) have actual holes.
TL;DR Fielder isn't Vaughn, but we don't need a 1B upgrade either way.
I feel like Hamilton is the far greater riskreater risk than Prince. Prince is a bit younger. He has a longer track record. He has been the far more consistent player. Despite Prince's body type and the fact that Hamilton's body appears to be chisled out of stone, I think it's clear that Hamilton represents the FAR greater risk of both injury and general body deterioration. And there seems to be far lower chance of Prince ending up passed out face down in a crack den.
Plus we get one season with BOTH of them. I would love for this to be true.
Wish I could edit my post. I meant to say Prince woudl push for 50 HR season, not hit.... Not that anyone didn't already pick up on that...
Just had this thought though, right after winning the WS, the Angels went out and signed a big bat to big bucks, little fellow we call Vlad. Was a great move on their part, brought them much regular season success, but in terms of post season, how'd that work out? Pitching endeavors first, then sniff out ways to improve offense.
@Bucky- That makes a lot of sense, but the Rangers are not in a bad spot pitching wise even losing CJ and adding nobody. Holland and Harrison will be solid again most likely. Lewis, Ogando and Feldman will be fine, plus we have Ramierez and Perez that are going to be in the big leagues shortly... That's not even taking into account the possibility of moving Feliz to SP.
Plus, they could always add veteran free agents for depth - for instance, Oswalt's option was declined by Philly today.
I feel there will be a push from some to get Hamilton signed long term after this season, but I'd really like to see how he fares next year before committing to him, not only production-wise but injury-wise. I agree with ScoobyDude's thoughts on Hamilton being a greater injury risk than Fielder. As for Fielder, I'll reiterate my stance on him: Sign the man! He's not some out of shape, overweight, fat ballplayer. He's an excellent fielding 1B and a beast offensively. I don't necessarily think he would take the most money; I feel he wil go to a team that has the best opportunity to win. In that category, Texas has the edge over any team pursuing him.
Seattle has the money to sign CJ, but not sure that's the place he would want to spend the majority of his remaining career. He would make their rotation better, but what does that help the anemic offense?
Since they already made a big splash last season with Beltre's very long contract, I just don't see them trying to solve the 1B dilemma by throwing crazy money at Fielder (or Pujols). I think it's much more likely that they either just agree to give Moreland another year, or they try to swing a deal for a younger, cheaper 1B. The latter is exactly the kind of thing JD is famous for.
Assuming that CJ leaves, I agree with Caleb - I think Oswalt might be a person of interest there.
3 years ago I would have loved Oswalt, but he has really gone downhill quick it seems and has had trouble with is back in recent years and that is never a good sign. As for Fielder, I have believed all along that Texas is at the front of the pack for him. JD and Co will never admit it, as they will be playing it cool through the winter meetings, but I think this has a real chance to be something. Once Fielder is a Ranger, Moreland, Torrealba, and Murphy are all legit trade bait. I could see JD swinging a deal that sends Moreland and a guy like Robbie Ross and Scheppers to TB for Shields.
I love the Fielder for insurance cause. If we can't get Josh signed for a reasonable price for a guy that only plays 100 or less games a year, we will have a replacement of his production and we have Hambone's defense covered already with Martin, Gentry etc... The offensive production we would get out of Martin or Gentry would be comparable to what we got out of Moreland this year and you could keep Moreland around as a 3rd or 4th outfielder and backup 1st baseman. Then you would have a big lefty bat for pinch hitting. Fielder is big, but he was born big on a big frame. I don't see him breaking down like some suggest.
Fielder- fuck no. WE CANT AFFORD HIM. I like mitch, i believe in him. always will. Something to consider about fielder besides the ridiculous cost, TEXAS HEAT. He plays in milwaukee, indoors. How would he hold up in our beast mode summers?
I want to keep josh as long as possible, just like the rest of the team, get a core going (like the bankees had) Keep them.
On CJ...and Darvish, I dont know yet. But... i would like us to give a look at Oswalt, but who knows if he would come to the AL.
Ian, your post is a perfect example of the old Hicksian way of thinking about the Rangers. First of all, they do have the money to sign him. Second, Hamilton is such an injury risk every year that paying him big bucks just isn't the way to get the most value for the buck.
I would like to think JD & Co are smart enough not to sign Hamilton just because he has been on the team the last few years and won an MVP in his only relatively healthy season. I am not too sure about Fielder but I agree that there should be an upgrade at 1B out there somewhere this winter that won't add $15M a year to the payroll.
I was thinking today what if they sign Fielder, Mitch has a good year with the bat in however he gets playing time, and then they resign Cruz but let Hamilton walk. Then Moreland can shift back to the OF where he played in Triple A.
Skeletor-I don't think Moreland's body of work in the outfield justifies a move there, considering Leonys Martin and Mike Olt are close to major league ready, and Murphy/Gentry available in the meantime.
As for Fielder, look how wildly his offensive production vacillates over his career:(as measured by wRC+, a league and park-adjusted stat that measures offense contribution as a proportion of league average. So a 125 wRC+ is 25% than league average)2006-1112007-1522008-1252009-1602010-1372011-162
His BABIP has been consistent throughout, but his ISO(measures power exclusively) has followed his wRC+. So, what's going on? Why does he have significant power swings every year? Frankly, I don't want to find out.
My other problem with Fielder is that his poor baserunning and fielding are inconsistent with the type of infield/lineup the Rangers have built the team around.
On the other hand, Wilson, while having what appears to be a slight attitude problem, is a pitcher with a relatively young arm. We've discussed Wilson at length, and I'm not going to get into it here, but if we need to make a choice between Fielder and Wilson, give me the improving year by year proven frontline starter who pitches in RBiA over the potentially horrendous Fielder.
I don't think it's a given that Murphy is back. He'll be sue $4m-ish in hbis arb-3 year. That's a lot for a bench bat, which is what he is if Martin grabs the CF job by the balls.
Don't get Fielder. He wouldn't mesh with the team, and our cohesiveness is our biggest weapon. So, because Josh is in the center of the team and their friendships and the fact that he is an amazing ballplayer, resign him. Not for 6 or 7 years, but for 2 or 3. He is a strong Christian man who will accept an offer less than he is worth humbly and happily as long as he is playing somewhere he loves, and, trust me, he loves it right here, deep in the heart of Texas.
- pass on Fielder ... pass on Pujols ... Mitch will be fine ... history has shown that the most successful teams, both on and off the field, have a) identified their "core" and secured them, and b) filled in with lower-cost options with upside (ie, Moreland, Murphy, Gentry, etc.) where needed ...
- offer CJ 4yrs. @ $70 M ... with a mutual 5th year option @ $19 M that can be voided by either side, which would trigger a $3 M buyout ... and the club's position should be based upon the "total body of work" that CJ has presented ... playoffs as well as regular season ... if Wilson's agent wants to negotiate some incentives (CY Award(s), IP's, K's, playoff appearances, etc.) that could make each year more "appealing", I listen to that if I'm the Rangers ... but CJ and his agent have to realize that the Rangers, while willing to pay for performance, are not going to pay for unrealized "potential" ... and especially not now, with the current structure of this team ... we are now a legitimate contender ... a "big boy" on the stage ... we aren't a "flavor of the year" or an "up-and-comer" ... we have arrived! You want the big $$$ ... production, CJ, production ...
- I wouldn't go crazy on Yu Darvish either ... again, reportedly a lot of potential ... but we don't know how it will translate at the MLB level ... just keep any $$$ offers reasonable ... posting as well as contract terms ...
- this is the off-season that, if I'm in JD's shoes, I go to the agents for Holland, Harrison, Ogando, and Feliz ... and discuss a long-term deal ... buy out the arb years and the first year or two of FA ... cost certainty, my friends ... I'd also get in touch with the agent for Adams, and explore an extension ... a very valuable bullpen piece for a team that sees itself as an annual contender ... maybe I can't do them all right now ... but I'm starting the conversation ...
- continue to monitor the FA market, and be ready to pounce once the flag drops in November ... if CJ doesn't want to sign before the opening of FA, that's fine ... his call ... I just don't want to see another Cliff Lee drama unfold ... if he wants to see what's "out there", that's fine ... as long as he understands that, unlike last off-season, once the flag drops, we have priorities that we will be addressing ... if his people want to "keep us posted", that's great ... but we will not be "hamstrung" waiting for a decision ...
- Now, finish this thing in 6!!!
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