What is your opinion of the A.J. Pierzynski signing?
MJH on accountability
Is Yu Darvish really worth $20mil a year? Would you take him over 25 a year for CC? How does CJ fit into all of this?
C.C. is making $27 mil per year right now so your question is somewhat irrelevant. He won't opt out for more than $30 mil more than likely bc he would also forego some endorsements. But long term, yes I'd still rather have Yu than C.C. over the next 5 years.
C.C. is a health problem waiting to happen. He might be fine by age 36 or whenever, but he also might have been DFA'd after eating too many cheeseburgers and losing his touch. Seriously, he looks like he's gained weight, and I don't think you can get jerseys in size Tent.
Yu sounds really, really promising, but I'd still be a bit worried since baseball here is different from in Japan, and those guys don't always do quite as well as we'd like.
C.J. had a good season followed by a great season. He's pitched from decent to terrible in the postseason, but I still would like him back, though I'm not sure at what price.
Here is an interesting analysis of how Darvish's numbers would transfer over to MLB. Obviously not an exact science, but interesting at least. It also factors in he pitches for Baltimore as a park factor, so you would assume the numbers would be a bit higher pitching in Arlington.
I'd almost rather have Darvish than CC. His stuff is just so crazy, and he is way younger.
This is how I feel about Yu Darvish...
The more I think about it, the more excited I get about having a chance at grabbing Darvish. We could have him for all of his productive years. His stuff is just nasty and it looks like it will translate. Our catchers have also worked with the Japanese mindset before, so they should be able to handle him better than others. Go ahead and put the money down and see what happens. We have cheap alternatives for many years if he doesn't hit to balance out the ledger and our owners are willing to spend some more, so one big failure of a contract wouldn't kill the franchise like it did in the past.
The more I watch Darvish on youtube, the more I think he has "it". His stuff has movement I've never seen before. His slider is plain filthy. His FB works in the mid-90's with movement. His splitter and cutter seem almost unhitable to a batter thinking FB/slider.
But, in JD I trust. He will do what is right.
Completely agree Scooby.
Just to play devils advocate:
Japanese pitchers tend not to work out after the first few years in the league. I cannot think of a single pitcher that is classified as an "ace" after his 4th season or so. What it seems like is that they come in and baffle the batters for a while then the batters (with the help of advanced scouting and batting coaches) somehow "get" what the Japanese pitchers are doing and crush them (more so than normal pitchers). $20M a year seems like a lot for him. I would like him better at CJ-ish numbers, but I also would like Pujols or Fielder at Moreland numbers...
If Yu Darvish's stuff doesn't translate then basically no pitcher's stuff will ever translate! Have you seen his stuff? He throws 7 pitches! Basically you are saying no pitchers will ever come out of Planet Earth except for North & South America. I understand price is the issue, but saying you don't think he will make it over here I think is almost incredulous. It's just price.
lol its just price.It is JUST VALUE! Value is what is important, and price is just part of that equation. Ask the #1 & #2 payroll teams how just price worked out in the playoffs. Ask the #3-#9 payrolls how just price worked out for them too (hint, they didn't even make the playoffs).lol its just price.
So OK by what you're saying it's how much you pay for a person's value. It's obvious he provides some value. Clearly he is a win above replacement player. It's just how much you pay for it. Half a dozen one way, 6 the other. lol it's just price.
Park was top shelf in LA, and probably would have been still if he would have stayed there. Kuroda is also pretty consistent in LA, putting up really solid starting numbers in probably the #2 slot. Maybe it's something about the comfort level in the bigger stadium, seeing that these guys seem to rely more on movement than pure power. Who knows... but I do see your point, Pickle.
To me, Darvish is a huge gamble, and could be really bad in mlb. Seems like if you're going to stack up all those bills, you had better get as close to a "sure thing" as you can.
I think Yu's age plays in his favor compared to other Japanese SPs. And frankly, so does his talent. He is genuinely a better pitcher than anyone who has ever come over from Japan.
Furthermore, let me say this. Hideo Nomo posted 20+ WAR in his career. At Free Agency prices of $5m per WAR today, that's worth $100m. Hiroki Kuroda has posted 13 WAR in 4 seasons despite missing almost half a season. That's worth $65m over 4 years at today's FA prices. Japanese pitchers have not been as good as advertised, and so people think none of them can pitch. But really, they've been a bit better than many think. Eventually one WILL come over and be an Ace. Darvish has all the tools to be that. He's a much better physical talent (bigger, stronger), with better stuff, and much younger.
Ok Scooby, I will grant that Nomo is the exception to prove the rule for his overall career. His single season highest WAR was 4.9 in his first season, and after his second season never went above 3.9. His 20 WAR over 12 seasons (average 1.6 per year) is not equal to $100M today. At least, it is not equal to today's money for anybody not the in the top 5 payroll
Darvish has an advantage over other pitching options that we haven't considered yet-marketability.
As one of the most significant Japan to U.S. transfers, Darvish has the potential to put the Rangers on the map the way Ichiro did with the Mariners, or the way Dice-K contributed to the Red Sox image. If Darvish garners increased attention, and that attention translates to better attendance and ratings, Darvish could potentially somewhat offset his cost, although probably not much more than $10 million or so over the course of his contract. Still, worth considering.
Say a pitcher gets 15 home starts in a year.
Look at the incremental increased net revenue from an additional sold ticket (meaning all the fixed costs are covered with the previous sales, so the new sale is all net with exception of the specific costs related to that sale) lets place that value at about $30. (If someone has the real number, chime in)
If for every 1,000 extra tickets per start that a "marketable" starting pitcher generates you get 15 starts * $30 * 1,000 tickets = $450,000 in increased net revenue.
If a pitcher that folks come out to see is worth and extra three to four thousand tickets per start, you're picking up $1.5 to 2.0 million a year.
Just putting some math to the marketability discussion. Now . . . the cat's gotta be really good to generate the kind of buzz that sustains those extra tickets over several years. But, if he is, some of the cost is covered.
If he's a bust you don't get the revenue lift and you're stuck with the big paycheck and not enough performance to justify it.
Oops - nobody caught my mistake - we're talking about pitchers from Japan and I cited Chan Ho Park. Yikes.
Yeah, Guy, I had those exact figures in mind, carried over a 5-year contract. Nice analysis!
I think, though, that when we're talking about Darvish, we can be *reasonably* certain he is going to be good. If you look at some of Dice-K's work when first joining MLB, especially in the first 2 years, he was getting a TON of Ks, nearly 1 per inning, and had a reasonably good ERA (4.40 and then 2.90). Obviously FIP (4.23 and then 4.03) accounted for his comical walk rate, and he never sustained that early performance, and now is getting TJ and sucks etc. Still, he generated some great "buzz" in the early going, and there's no reason to think Darvish wouldn't at least equal that.
Hiroki Kuroda has 1 season above .500 (8-7), career record of 41-46. Tomo Ohka has 2 seasons above .500 (13-8, 11-9), career record of51-68.Daisuke Matsuzaka's one good season (18-3) out of 5 skews his career record of 49-30.Chan Ho Park...let's not go there Hideo Nomo is the exception; he had 2 very nice years with the rest mediocre at best. Career record of 123-109.
So Darvish looks good on YouTube videos...big deal. No SP pitcher from the Far East has been better than a #3 SP in MLB at best, and there is nothing to suggest that Darvish will perform any better. $120+ million for that? Seriously? I'll gladly eat crow if the guy comes here and suceeds. But performing like previous pitchers from the Far East is not sucess. For the hefty price tag he will command, a team should be reasonably certain Darvish will put up Verlander/Sabathia/Halladay numbers for the length of the contract. Since that assurance cannot be made based on Japanese League performance, I hope the Rangers pass on this guy.
I understand the Rangers have to do their due diligence on Darvish, but I hope it's nothing more than window dressing to prod other teams interest in using resources to sign Darvish, instead of signing other players the Rangers may have their eyes on.
I don't think it fair to compare only Japanese pitchers or use them as an example, unless you are going to show their numbers in regards to all of the pitchers in MLB during their years. Do that and you will see that Kuroda has been a good pitcher. Nomo was a very good pitcher. And if Darvish, as I firmly believe, if better than they? Then yes I take the chance. If he is an excellent #2 or #3 I am happy. I am not asking him to come in here and win the Cy Young award his entire career, but he has #1 potential, can pitch to both RH and LH with devastating stuff, and could be a #1 and have a hell of a career in his prime years just beginning here in Texas.
I think the article originally posted points that out. His math is fuzzy and never a certain result to his hypothetical, but I believe he is closer to right than wrong. Just MHO.
I also meant to say, that if MLB teams, including the Rangers, looked at it that way and didn't see talent throughout the Pacific Rim? Then they wouldn't make such a scouting effort there, much like they do in Latin America.
W-L is a terrible indicator of pitcher quality. Kuroda has been an okay #2/really good #3 who has posted poor W/L records because he plays for a bad team. The Dodgers had what should be the MVP AND the Cy Young and were out of contention by the All-Star break this year.
Another thing to remember is that Kuroda came over when he was 32 years old. A lot of these Japanese pitchers spend the best part of their prime years in Japan before being allowed to come to the States. I think it's safe to assume that Kuroda's most impressive years would have been his 27-31 year old seasons, had he been here during those prime years. Dravish will be bringing his prime years.
Finally, the other big difference between Darvish and those other guys is that his numbers and general dominance over there truly exceeds what those other guys ever did in Japan. So when you say "there is nothing to suggest Darvish will perform any better" that's just not true. There are 2 major things that suggest it. (1) Better Japanese numbers that those other guys, and (2) Better stuff and associated scouting reports than those other guys.
Based on what I've read/heard, Darvish has the biggest chance of making an impact on MLB of any pitcher that has come from Japan or been considered for it. If J.D. and co. try for him, they'll have done their homework and checked it three times. Because you know we aren't the only ones interested in him.
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