What is your opinion of the A.J. Pierzynski signing?
MJH on accountability
Let me preface this, with the fact that Joey is a smart guy. He deserves much appreciation for doing what he does for this web-site, while also juggling several other serious careers and aspirations.
When I first made my point, it was deleted by Joey, and rightfully so, due to know factual backup. My hope is that he will let this point be discussed. It is the same point, with some stats. I e-mailed it to him, as well as others I know who know. Most liked it.
It was as follows:
"Billy Beane was mocked for new ideas and it served him well. Doug Melvin had an idea and was mocked, which Jon Daniels followed, despite Tom Hicks and John Hart foiling the plan for several years.My point of a true OBP or an adjusted OBP has gotten me more than scolded by several. But if you look at my point, it is not flawed or without measure.
If Average can take into account home-runs, but not walks, yet OBP can take into account both walks and HR’s, then I do think it is flawed. OBP is “On Base Percentage”. To me, at least, that means you are on base in some semblance of scoring position, enabling the team to manufacture additional runs via RBI, especially when a HR hitter is coming up. And in the Rangers’ case? This is occurs very often.Using my “flawed logic”, the following standard OBP formula would not include HR’s in OBP:
OBP = H + BB + HBP / AB + BB + HBP + SF My whole initial point was to prove that with Elvis at Lead-Off and Ian further down the line-up, that Ian would be an RBI machine. So let’s just say hypothetically that Ian had batted 2nd all year and Elvis in the #1 hole: Using my adjusted formula?Elvis Andrus’ AOBP is .335. (213 /635)Ian Kinsler’s AOBP is .308. (217/705)I am simply saying Kinsler with 25 solo HR’s could manufacture more runs in a lower spot. I am not trying to reinvent baseball nor stats. I just wanted point out that my belief, I think, is accurate."
And just to further my point? We are 6th in all of baseball in LOB.
In a lineup with Hamilton, Beltre, Cruz, Napoli, and Moreland (when he's right), where exactly do you want Kins to hit?
1 - Elvis2 - MY3 - Josh4 - Beltre5 - Cruz6 - Napoli
7 - Kinsler?
I won't disagree that Kins may have more RBIs if he were further down the order but I think as many on this site have pointed out, RBIs are a somewhat 'fake' stat and don't really prove much in the grand scheme of things. Kinsler might get his RBIs but Moreland, Murph Gentry or Torrealba would be losing theirs.
My original arguement was when Cruz went down, thus Ian @ #5. I think Josh hit exceptionally well with MY @ #2 in front of him. I also think you go into the play-offs with two power hitters who cannot run, as they are 75% at best due to HS injuries?
Me? I do this:
AndrusYoungKinslerBeltreHamiltonCruzNappyMurphGentry / Chavez
I don't carry Treanor. I take Tor and use as needed. That would change my line-up in such case.
Speed and power, combined with good pitching? Done deal. DONE!
Andrus - SSYoung - 1BKinsler - 2BBeltre -3BHamilton LFCruz - RFNappy - CMurph - DHGentry / Chavez - CF
I don't see that getting rolled out there in the playoffs. Ever.
And your catcher with an "AOBP" around .350 batting 7th doesn't do much to support your initial post either.
Thanks for "assuming" my defensive positions. For the initial play-off run? I'd DH Cruz (Hammy). Murph can play right, as can Chavez. And if Nappy could run? I'd have HIM leading off with his OBP!
Good questions tho. I get your points.
BTW - Is TSU Tarleton State? Just curious.
"When I first made my point, it was deleted by Joey, and rightfully so, due to know factual backup. "due to know? know what?
You do know that John Hart hired Jon Daniels. Then, decided to step down and allow Daniels to take over as the new GM in 2005. He's still with the Rangers as a senior adviser and is under contract with them until 2013. Not to mention, Tom Hicks kept Jon Daniels after a few terrible trades in the beginning and agreed to the new plan to rebuild in 2007. Let's give Hicks and Hart the credit that they are due.
RK PLAYER TEAM R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO AVG OBP1 Granderson NYY 135 152 26 10 41＿119 24 10 85 168 .262 .364 2 Kinsler＿＿＿ TEX 121 158 34＿4 32＿77＿＿30 3 87 71 .256 .3543 Ellsbury＿＿＿BOS 119 211 46＿5 32＿105 38 15 52 97 .322 .377 Note: Kinsler has played less games than everyoneYes, Granderson isn't a leadoff hitter, but it's fascinating to see that a normally #2 hitter leads the league in Runs scored by a pretty wide margin. It's also interesting to see that Kinsler is slightly ahead of Ellsbury in Runs scored despite Ellsbury leading in hits, double, and steals.
Ellsbury 105 RBI vs Kinsler 77 RBI. Explain that.
Too bad Kinsler wouldn't be able to use his speed behind Young, and before you argue that Young can run, you should know that Young has attempted 8 steals this season getting caught twice.
I'd like to point out that RBI is a real stat and every bit as relevant as Runs.
I would like to point out that the Rangers offense is RED-FREAKING-HOT right now and any tinkering w/ the line-up would be unwise, IMO.
I mean, you really want to move Beltre out of the 5-hle while he is knocking the cover off the ball?
For the lead-off situation, I don't think this logic holds up. The home runs that you want to discount from Kinsler's OBP are worth more than a lead-off walk or a lead-off base hit for the simple reason that the run has already scored... and there are still no outs... and now Elvis essentially becomes the lead-off batter. There might be something to the in-game situation where Kinsler's power might be more useful batting elsewhere in the lineup but the offense is performing quite well at the moment. Wash is always telling the players to "do what the game asks you to do" so it's possible that the players have adjusted to their roles in the lineup such that a change at this point in the season might have adverse effects.
And if Nappy could run? I'd have HIM leading off with his OBP!I found that statement a little confusing and perhaps contradictory. Kinsler can run and Napoli has a higher slugging percentage.
I see why Joey deleted this thread once. Pointless debate.Kinsler should lead off. Best overall hitter gets the most ABs per game seems like solid logic.
JFitz got you there Ricky. The offense is fine I say leave it alone as long as hes not putting Napoli in the one hole Idc as long as it keeps scoring runs.
I go back to once again this have a very negligible effect on the outcome of a single game.
We have conflicting ideas about where to put Ian in the lineup, and rightfully so. He can hit for power, so that makes you want to put him in the heart of the lineup. He gets on base all the time, and he's a great baserunner, so you want to bat him early.
Of the guys that play almost every day, I would consider Ian, Josh, Beltre, Napster, and Cruz power hitters. I would consider Elvis and Young contact hitters. Can we really put 5 power hitters together in the heart of the lineup? I'm not the expert, but my gut suggests that they might be better interspersed, as exemplified by having MY bat cleanup. And as for leadoff guys, I think Ian and Elvis are the 2 best candidates from our everyday players.
I'm sure Kinsler would have more RBIs if he batted further down the lineup. But someone has to lead off.
Maybe they'll tweak it again next year. For the rest of this year, I hope they don't change it too much; if it ain't broke, don't fix it (and it ain't...)
And as I stated... the point was for discussion... hypothetical if you will. And, no Caleb, I wouldn't alter anything currently in the line-up. It is producing phenomenally right now and will continue to in the play-offs. In a traditional line-up it obviously would make sense for Ian to bat further down. But when you have so many 20 plus HR guys on one roster? What can you do? Next year you could have potentially 6 guys do that. 5 of those 6 will likely hit 30 plus. Amazing roster.
The leadoff hitter is only guaranteed to hit first once. Kinsler's first AB isn't the deciding factor in a game.
Kinsler has 2.5x more walks than HRs. He is more likely to draw a walk, steal bases, have Elvis move him over a base, and wait for a power hitter to send him home than he is to hit a HR. He's scored 121 runs and drew 87 walks; that's more than anyone else on the lineup. He's fine where he is.
Notify me of follow-up comments via email.