What is your opinion of the A.J. Pierzynski signing?
MJH on accountability
Perhaps its a bit early to be concerned with trades this winter but I couldn't resist.
I brought this up in one of Joey’s recent threads and thought it might be worth taking a closer look at. As it stands right now perhaps the biggest weakness on this team remains CF. Chavez/Gentry have played admirably this year if not well above their respective heads. Martin is on his way but even if he were to win the starting job next year how likely is it he would put up Matt Kemp type numbers? Perhaps Martin could perform at the same level Chavez/Gentry have so far this year but I’m not sure I believe he’d be capable of much more than that right out of the box.
Kemp on the other hand would be a monster in RBiA! He will likely finish this year with something on the order of 90 runs, 30 homers, 110 RBI and 35 SB with a .320 ave. and an unbelievable .950 OPS. There’s absolutely no way Martin comes in and supplies that sort of production his first year in the league.
Kemp will be in his last year of arbitration in 2012 and will probably earn somewhere in the range of 12 to 15 mil. A lot of cash no doubt but his level of production is worth it. There are however several added benefits as well. First it ensures the Rangers time to develop Martin further. Second it keeps Hamilton out of CF, Cruz out of LF and Moreland out of RF. Third Kemp hasn’t suffered from the nagging injuries that are prone to several of our other premier position players. This will be his third year in a row to play 150 games or more and would bring much need offensive stability during times when Cruz, Kinsler, Hamilton, or Beltre are out.
The biggest obstacle, as always, is finding the right package of players and prospects to entice a team to part with one of their key players. Here’s where I think JD has the skillfulness and resources to find common ground. Looking at their roster the Dodgers appear to be thin at catcher, third, short, and RP so there’s lots of combinations available for JD to take advantage of. Perhaps Olt, Engel Beltre, Sardinas and Strop would be a good starting point. Perhaps not, but the important point is that the Rangers are in a position to take advantage of another teams weaknesses.
Right now the Dodgers are in a bad way and I haven't seen any indication that they will be out of hot water come next year. If that's the case and they aren't able to sign Kemp beyond next year then they will have lost a great opportunity to improve their team for years to come.
Kinsler, Andrus, Hamilton, Beltre, Kemp, Cruz, Young, Napoli/YT and Moreland. Who’s with me?
If you add kemp how are you going to pay MY awful contract re sign cj or sign yu darvish? Not to mention the arbitration raises for Napoli Cruz Hamilton blanco Murphy and Elvis next year? The Rangers did not sign Martin to sit in aaa
I'll take Clayton instead.
I agree with you - seems like a tough one economically, especially considering the apparent FA pitching needs/wants (CJ, Darvish).
However, Hamilton agreed to a two year deal before this season, so his last arb year has been bought out already.
However, I know exactly where some of the money for Cruz, Elvis and Napoli's raises is coming from = Murphy can get his arb raise elsewhere, dude is a spare...
I like the idea. regardless it seems that theres no way that the Dodgers will be able to keep Kemp, Kershaw, and Etheir. So if we want one of them; I believe for the price at least one of them will be available.
I'll agree, Kemp would be an awesome addition to the team. It would definitely take a monster deal for the Dodgers to trade him, probably the same type that the Braves sent to the Rangers for Tex. Instead of signing the injury-prone Cruz, I'd rather move Kemp to a corner OF position if Martin proves capable of handling CF, and let Cruz walk. And no way does MY get another $16 million per year. He'll be 37 when he becomes a free agent and shouldn't get more than a 2 year/$18-22 million deal. Napoli shouldn't get more than $8-10 million per year, even if he is the primary catcher. There's enough depth in the minors to trade for Kemp and let Murphy walk also. I wouldn't think it would take much to re-sign Blanco. Even with the raises to Hamilton, Kinsler, and Elvis, I think Kemp could work. Chavez stays on as the fourth OF, Moreland stays at 1B, and a lineup of Kinsler, Andrus, Hamilton, Beltre, Kemp, Young, Moreland, Martin, and Napoli with a payroll of $110-125 million.
I'm not a proponent of re-signing CJ to a monster contract, and I just can't understand the fascination with Yu Darvish. I understand he's a great pitcher in the Japanese League, but since when has a pitcher from that league come to the states and been worth the money? Nomo, Irabu, Matsuzaka, Park, and others have come here and had limited success, but I've seen numerous posts touting Darvish and the possible signing, even though it will probably take a total of $150-200 million (including amount needed to bid for the right to talk to him) to sign this guy. And yet, just as many posts say signing Fielder to a contract possibly for the same amount of perhaps a little less is ludicrous. I don't understand the logic. Pay an unproven starting pitcher just as much or more than an offensive stud and well above average defensive first baseman? Think the media railed on the Rangers for the A-Rod contract, wait and see what happens if Darvish signs here, or anywhere, for $150-200 million and flames out in 2 years like the previous Japanese pitchers. Sorry, wandered off topic for a bit.
I'm not necessarily saying sign and extend Kemp although I think it can be done. I also tend to think of the Wilson/Darvish situation as an either/or.
Thinking back to some comments made by the perspective ownership group they specifically wanted to compete with teams like the Phillies in terms of salary. So essentially I am taking them at their word that money isn't a huge issue. Currenrtly team salary sits around 90 mil. The Phillies are at nearly 170 mil. Even if they only wanted to be in the top five teams in terms of salary they would be spending around 125 mil. An additional 35 mil in payroll could net you five more years of Wilson as well as Kemps last year of arbitration with around five mil left. There will also be additional salary dropping from the books thanks to the departure of Rhodes and the probable departure of Oliver which is an additional 7 mil to use toward extending core players such as Cruz, Hamilton and Napoli.
As for Murphy and Blanco there arbitration increases will be minimal provided they are still in the organization at that point.
You are right that Martin wasn't signed to sit at AAA. However if he isn't ready to contribute in a big way this september I find it hard to believe that he should be given the starting job right out of the gate next year. I have read multiple reports that indicate the raw talent is there but he needs some additional seasoning before he makes a significant impact in the majors. getting Kemp for 2012 gives Martin the time he probably needs. Additionally, if Martin proves to be ready next year then you have a remarkable trade chip in Kemp that could be flipped for just about anything the Rangers might need at the deadline.
How do we know that the Dodgers won't want Leonys as a part of the Kemp deal? Leonys might not even be here to worry about.
Matt Kemp screams Alfonso Soriano to me. Good hitter but a head case. In 2010, he didn't put forth any effort. His coaches hated him. He's still young, but he also loves the Hollywood lifestyle. I don't think he wants to leave LA and if he did, would he pout and revert to his old ways? I think the amount that would have to be given up would be too much to take a risk. If it could work, it would be great, but if we wanted a CF that could hit, why did we pass on Bourn? The asking price obviously wasn't that high. I know Bourn isn't a power hitter like Kemp but I think our lack of interest in Bourn is a sign that we were content with our CF future. I believe the FO is putting all of their eggs in the Martin basket and they'll probably stay that way until they've given him the big league job and he's lost it.
Kemp would be nice, for sure, but I'd take Kershaw first if the Dodgers become sellers. At some point, if they want to keep him, they're going to have to offer him a monster contract, which seems unlikely under the the current regime. I doubt it'll happen this year, but I'll say that if it can be done at all, JD can do it. I like where he's taken us. I really, really like him.
That's a weak trade for Kemp IMO. I would turn that down in a second if I'm the Dodgers. You didn't give ANY of our top 3 prospects away. You would have to give at least 1, most likely 2 for one of the best CF in the game. We talked about this in another forum. The Dodgers would be wise to trade Billingsley and/ or Ethier before Kemp and Kershaw. That will get them to the next owner. If we're thinking it, you know they're thinking it. If you're going to trade with them, might as well go balls to the wall and offer Holland, Perez, Martin, Olt, Sardinas, Strop and Jackson for Kershaw and Kemp.
That's why it's a starting point P1. You have to leave yourself room to manuever in order to get the best deal possible. I would expect the Dodgers to start off asking for at least Holland, Perez, Profar and Martin in hopes of getting at least two of them. Just because that's were each team starts doesn't mean that's were they end. Look at the Cliff Lee deal. The Rangers only had to give up one premium prospect to get the best pitcher available then. Bourn is also one of the best CF in the game and was dealt for an outfielder and three mid level pitching prospects this summer. Trades like what the Rangers got for Texeira are the exception not the rule.
If your going after Kershaw then I think you can expect to lose at least two of Holland, Perez, Profar and Martin. Kemp isn't Kershaw and therefore wouldn't require the same level of prospects in return. Furthermore the asking price for Kemp will be less this summer than it is this winter because he will be a three month rental at that point. Kemp may very well want to stay in LA but I don't think the Dodgers will have the resources to resign him. That's why the Dodgers would be wise to trade him this winter and why in the end I think they will.
Over the last 13 months JD has traded for the best left handed pitcher on the market and then put the most money in front of him in the offseason. He then signed the best third baseman in the game in the offseason. And as an encore this July he traded for the two best relief pitchers on the market. In short JD is going after the best players available to fill weaknesses on the squad. Kemp will be the best available CF this offseason. Besides Youngs 16 mil per year contract didn't keep JD from going after the better player in Beltre so why should Leonys Martin keep him from going after the better player in Kemp.
Good point arp. I didn't realize next year would be the last year on Kemps contract. It does make a lot of sense then. Although I think comparing Kemp to Bourne is a little much. Those are 2 totally different players. Kemp could carry a team (he's in the MVP race), Bourne could..well...get on base lol. Huge difference. That's why a Texiera trade and Kemp trade should be pretty close to the rule this time. I don't think a trade headlined by Olt could get it done, especially since he had an injury.
I like your points though. Definitely made me realize Kemp could be had in the offseason. I think this offseason will be one of the craziest yet with all of these huge names available either through free agency, trade or Japan. I can't wait.
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