What is your opinion of the A.J. Pierzynski signing?
MJH on accountability
So i've taken a layoff from posting for a while, but I thought of something last night I felt I should share. Are we as Rangers fans taking CJ for granted?
Consistent Ace quality pitching to me is rare. extremely rare. And i'll clarify further by saying two things, I qualify an Ace as a pitcher who has been consitently at the top of the rotation and has won consistently (i'd say around 15 wins, theres exceptions depending on the team they play on) for 3 years out of 4 (i call this the cole hamels rule.... youre allowed to have a bad year mixed in with the good ones) and when you take the mound the fan base automatically marks that game down as a win (may not happen, but the expectations HAVE to be there). Secondly... there are not enough Ace pitchers in the league right now for every team to have one (damn phillies... they have 3 and yes i think Hamels is an Ace... if he was on any other team he'd be a number 1 and would meet all qualifications). That being said as my post title does, the Ace is very rare. You've got Verlander, Lincecum, Felix, CC, Weaver, Halladay, Lee, Hamels,Lester etc.
Unfortunately for every Ace, you have guys that have a spectular year and fade to the moon. there are just too many to list, but you know what i'm talking about, Zambrano, right now Ubaldo, Volquez, Padilla, Dice K
CJ has had two pretty concistent seasons. Do you expect that to continue? Right now, no, we're not pencilling in a W when he hits the mound. Is he gonna fade to the moon? no. We have a lot of young pitchers (none i'm more excited about that Harrison 2.0) and Holland the bipolar wonder kid could be great once he learns consistency. Ogando came out of nowhere (to some... I wanted him in the rotation over Feliz when they were debating the two, and so did several others on this site and we know why) can he keep it up?
So finally I cut to the chase, Do you expect CJ to keep improving and hitting that Ace qualification, or is he a perpetual 2 his entire career? Do you see any of our young guns meeting these qualifications?
If the concensus is that CJ has the potential to win concistently, be a guaranteed W when he takes the mound, and cant be replaced by one of our younger pitchers anytime soon. Then we need to resign him next year. And with that, no matter the cost. Diamonds are expensive, and if Aces are rarer, theyre worth the price too.
Honestly, I view CJ as a really good #2 SP borderline #1. I think I read a while back that we win 75-85% of the games CJ pitches which is awesome. With that being said, I think 3 of the other 4 (Colby being exluded) have a ceiling of at least being a really good #2 with potential to be aces. Unfortunately, I see his salary going upwards of Cliff Lee territory just bc the Yankees HAVE to get another starter. For that, I say hell no...especially after the past few weeks. If he starts stringing together a good run from now to the playoffs then maybe I can see the value, but right now I save my money and spend it on someone else. I see the Rangers being huge players in this upcoming offseason via trades, signings, etc. I honestly see us in the Pujols sweepstakes. Maybe I'm crazy, but he makes us scary good and the Dodgers will need a new 1B after they trade theirs to someone. Moreland would be a great chip in the Kershaw sweepstakes. If CJ falls in line I wouldn't necessarily hate the move though.
...and of course I look at the SP free agents next year during this post and see hardly anyone available. It's CJ and Buehrle... then everybody else. So um, if we lose CJ we better trade for an ace.
C.J. is not a #1 by any means. The way he presents himself when he struggles suggest he is not a #1. The Doc Halladays, Verlanders, Weavers, Lee's are true #1s.
I honestly will not miss C.J. if he leaves.
But... how often does CJ struggle? He's gonna cost a pretty penny, but he's certainly a quality pitcher, whether or not he's viewed as a #1 or not. If Texas loses CJ, but picks up somebody who can do what he does on the same level, then the team will probably be okay. But if they lose CJ and replace him with, say, an unproven Feliz? I think there's gonna be some problems. I guess we'll see.
My gut feeling is that Texas will resign him - or at least offer him a competitive deal.
Right now if cj isn't in this rotation who would replace him? Feldman, any number of triple aaa arms? I for one would not be too comfortable with any of the other options to take his place. Even if it happened to be feliz.
I couldnt agree more with pretty much anything yallve said. JD and Nolan have some real evaluation to do.... but one thing to note that kinda scares me.... the majority of us would rate Ubaldo as a number 1. so you can look at it one of two ways.... half glass empty.... if ubaldo's not a 1, CJs certainly not a number 1 he's gone and who knows what will happen; trade for price, Yu Darvish, Feliz(although after this year i'm having my doubts with him), or half glass empty, coulda bee an ass backwards compliment to CJ, and if they think he truly is better than Ubaldo or has the ability to dominate and be as good as he was last year. then he'll be around for another 5 years, probably 6 based on incetives ala Beltre's contract. But i totally agree if theres a remote chance this is his cap, you dont pay the money its gonna take to resign him for a 2 at best.
as a PS i seriously think Harrison 2.0 has number 1 potential out of all of our guys. just my opinion as of late. but i gotta see him bring it like he has been for all of next year and the year after
I compare CJ to this years trade market. You don't pay the price for a #1...for a #2. I think the Rangers will see that and push for a trade or attempt to get Darvish. Imagine what that posting fee will be for Darvish...Dice-K was 51 million!!
I honestly don't think any of our guys have a ceiling...yet. They have all looked so good (at times) that I could see any of them becoming a TORP...though the probabilities obviously vary. And yes, if CJ is the best FA starter at the end of the year (I can't think of another one, but I haven't gone through the list), then NY will almost certainly wine and dine him and probably throw a ton of money at him. But I expect Nolan and J.D. will do the right thing. I think that, if they want to re-sign him (and they probably will), they'll offer him a good number like they offered Cliff. And then it's up to him.
@Garrett: I agree those are legitimate #1s, but in particular I wouldn't want Weaver here after the way he's been a bit of a douchecopter lately. I can't imagine Nolan would, either.
I agree completely with you DC although I tend to use WAR instead of Wins as my barometer but there really isn't much of a difference between the two in terms of results. When I talk about an ACE I am referring to a pitcher who has at least three years in a row of 4 WAR or better. C.J. will be finishing his second year at that level and I think would be hard pressed to not reach it next year. Weaver is probably as close as one could get and not meet my definition seeing as he had a WAR of 3.9 in 2009 and as such doesn't quite meet the requirements. He will most certainly meet it next year however.
We won't be able to replace CJ next year if we lose him to free agency.
yeah... Weaver REALLY showed how a # 1 acts didn't he. I understand what your saying but throwing at Avila like that was not very cool.
I don't think we overpay for cj. I could see him in NYY as CC's #2 or even taking a bit of a discount to go home and play for LAA unfortunately. There is a good chance he is the top pitching FA this winter... I think we did well hanging on to some important prospects and may be able to trade for an ace in off season or next deadline.
Also, with the 2 recent pickups we can move Feliz to rotation and have innings 7, 8, 9 handled by Lowe, Uehara and Adams. So we don't have to overpay for CJ... I think it's 50/50 if he ends up here and won't care one way or the other. I'd rather save the money and deal for a top of the rotation ace...
CJ is a #1, but not an Ace #1. He's something like the 20th best SP out there. REALLY good, but not a lockdown Ace. And I see this as his ceiling.
I think it's just going to be Feliz for CJ in 2012, then Perez for Colby in 2013.
I don't think any of Perez, Holland, Feliz, Ogando, or Ramirez is LIKELY to be a true Ace. However, I think it IS likely that one from that group ends up being a true Ace. Strength in numbers, Baby! An Ace and 4 #2s is damned good.
Harrison with more strikeouts or even fewer walks could certainly become one. At the minimum, he seems to have gotten the right stuff going on upstairs to max out his potential.
For Holland, it's going to be consistency. I'd pick him to be the most likely out of the staff to throw a no-hitter in the near future. As he matures, I think he will do extremely well for this team.
Ogando needs a third pitch against lefties. Right now his problem is that a lot of the elite squads all have nasty lefty hitters. And of course, there's the durability question.
@Andy Agreed man. He was being a complete dickhead Sunday against the Tigers. Kershaw, King Felix,CC ect.. on that list
Any chance that Weaver's implosion over the weakened is symptomatic of a larger issue within the Angel's clubhouse? I can't help but think that the failure of the Angel's FO to acquire anybody at the deadline could have a negative effect on their team. Remember how psyched the Rangers were last year because of all the trades JD pulled off.
Knowing that your FO can't do anything to help you win games down the stretch while the team your trying to catch just got significantly better has to be a huge let down. Not saying that was why Weaver did what he did but I can't imagine he's not frustrated with the inaction of his FO.
You guys are crazy. I love Weaver even more bc he did that. He put fear into other teams if they want to show him up. The guy has balls, you have to give him that at least. Could you imagine someone showing Nolan up like that? He would do the same damn thing.
Also, a lot of this #1 talk is relative to what it would cost to lock Cj up. At 7 mil for three years? Yes sir. More perhaps if he is as good in the post season as he was last year. But you start pushing what the yankees will pay for him, just to push the price point out (11-15 mil), no way. He thinks he is an ace, "true ace", and accordingly will want to be paid like an ace. But he won't be #1 in the rotation for long at all the way the staff is pitching, especially Good Holland and Harrison 2.0.
Just my 2c on the Weaver thing. Its not the first time he's done something ike that. When it happened I was like "what a little B****" but then i started to think about it, and P1 is right....kinda granted Nolan would never chunk at a dudes head like that, Nolan didnt take S*** from anyone. we can all ask robin ventura (anytimes a good time to mention that). My point is... what we saw from Weaver is a misguided exposition of "the fire" Nolan and Wash were referring to as missing from Feliz, and in my opinion some of our other pitchers. CJ is too cerebrel, Ogando's still trying to figure it out, and Holland is still at times a scared little puppy up there. The only two that pitch with an intensity and determination needed to succeed right now is Colby and Harrison 2.0 (sorry i just love calling him that). Why do you think Colby strikes so many ppl out? along with that, why do you think he gives up so many HRs? he doesnt pitch scared. He throws where he wants to when he wants to and what happens happens. perfect example that Corey patterson face high upper decker HR he gave up. Only one in a million times does that happen, but he went up there dug in and threw the pitch expecting a strike.
Same thing with Harry. my favorite thing about him right now is that he gets better deeper in the game. when most guys start to crack he hardens. 6th inning 2 on, nobody out. He strikes the next guy out and gets the next guy to GDP. its a thing of beauty. not only that but he struck the first guy out with a 98 mph FB when he's been throwing 94-96 the whole game and youre like where the F*** did that come from.
Fire.... Weaver's got it, and i'd take him on our team in a heart beat. but you have to find a balance. S*** like that can happen once a year or two, when it happens more you turn into Padilla and your own team wants you the hell off their team.
I have absolutely no problem with Weaver re-establishing the inner half of the strike zone. I just don't ever recall Weaver being that gritty of a pitcher.
Having frequented the bump back in my playing days I always wanted to establish the inner half of the strikezone regardless of the consequences. I've never understood pitchers who are affraid to go inside because if you want to be effective at any level you have to be able to keep a hitter honest. Especially if you lack plus stuff like me. However there is a significant difference between re-establishing the inner half and flying off the hook. Again no problem with Weaver's intensity but getting tossed from a close game late in the season when your team has a chance to close the gap with the division leader is a bit extreme.
you gotta stick with the attempted murder rules. You shoot a dude above the waistline....attempted murder. shoot him below the waist assault with a deadly weapon. Weaver got tossed cuz he went for the head. I think even if he hit him as long as it wasnt above waist level he mightve not been tossed.
You dont remember the thing last year with him walking off the mound after getting pulled and giving our fans the finger. both hands! (yeah he took the glove off) He's got a temper, but like i said previously he's pretty much allowed to go off like that once a year. funny though how carlos silva or zambrano do the same thing and their hated by everyone for it lol.
Throwing at the head was uncalled for. It's always uncalled for.
Throwing your hardest FB at the small of his back was absolutely called for, and I have more respect for him for not allowing that stare-down to stand.
The Nolan comparison is apt, but of course Nolan is a bad-ass redneck. Steve Carlton would've done the same, and so would Rodger, or Pedro. Big Unit would have tried to kill the next hitter. Schilling might have played it cool and waited until the next time he saw the guy who showed him up. Bob Gibson might have just stabbed the guy in the parking lot after the game.
On the other hand, I suspect Gentleman Greg Maddux would have just gotten the next 7 or 8 hitters out and let that be that. So there are different ways to go about it. But I do think a lot of the greats wouldn't stand for what Weaver didn't stand for.
Funny we had a Thomas Diamond who was supposed to be an ace
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