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Forum > A New, Yet Interesting Theory

So one of the other forums brought up Jeter's HOF credentials etc. That i'm not disputing while his numbers may not seem to be that HOF worthy, the fact that as a whole he was the leader of a team with what 7 maybe 8 championships now? (i'd have to look it up) but thats not the point. Hubz <-- not calling you out, youre just the one that brought this to my mind... brought up Griffey as in his mind one of the few candidates other than Jeter in the "PED" era to be HOF worthy. First of all i want to say that I agree 100% if there has been any PROOF brought against you that PEDs have been used you should not be HOF worthy. As long as Pete Rose cant be in the HOF for gambling, you definately shouldnt be in the HOF for PEDs, again this is just my opinion. However, it brings me to this...

Its been proven that prolonged used of steroids eventually cause the body to breakdown. Granted in any game of sports there are numerous variables that can also cause this kind of effect, one in paticular being whether you play on turf vs grass... However with Griffeys drastically escalated fall from top of his game to becoming constantly injury prone to his immediate departure from the game, the potential use of steroids has previously been in question with him. The same thing happened with Nomar Garciaparra. One year he was one of the best SS in the league (Noooomaaaarrrr) the next his body just fell apart on him. Did these guys play like Rusty greer and just obliterate their bodies every play possible, i dunno, i didnt watch every game, however i dont believe thats the factor. Look, i want to clarify i'm not accusing these guys of using steroids; but the question absolutely has to be there.

Which brings me to this. We know Hamilton had a alcohol and drug abuse problem. He's admitted as much, and that alone depending on the drug could cause a deterioration of the body. However has anyone ever even looked into steroids in regards to Hambone? This is a guy thats been a number one pick from high school on... and i know from my playing days roids was rampant in the HS locker room as well as college. Again, i'm not accusing him of using roids, i'm not saying he has, i'm not saying i have proof. I'm just wondering does anybody else question and wonder is there a possibility that amongst his other issues, he might have also abused roids at the time to keep him on top of his game while struggling with his addictions. As a one time drug counselor its not uncommon for ppl with drug addictions to overcompensate in their professional and personal lives in an attempt to hide their addictions.

Look bottom line, I love me some Hambone. His story, his comeback, from the HR Derby to his MVP season and ALCS MVP last year he's earned it. But the fact remains he's unnaturally fragile, and perpetually injury prone. Now i know he does have a little Rusty Greer in him. But in other instances with past injuries.... it just makes you wonder why is this guy hurt so often? could a hidden use of roids be the answer? What do you think?

(i know i'll be reamed, crucified, blasted, all the above) however i've stated before i'm a thinker, and i like to make others think as well. take it however you will. i mean know ill will towards any of the above players mentioned. i've stated there is no proof. As far as i'm concearned in the words of Conseco, they are Vindicated. I'm just posing a question.

July 6, 2011 at 10:11 AM | Unregistered CommenterDcaggie06

I'd be surprised if he didn't use PEDs. Then again, I'd be surprised if MY didn't use PEDs. About the time he stopped being able to field 2B, and starter hitting, MY packed on 20-30 pounds of muscle in an offseason. Personally, I'd rather them not police PEDs, and allow them under Doctor's supervision. PED's have some real beneficial uses, especially with healing of injuries.

If athletes use them, and get yoked with them under Doctor's care, it may even help society by improving the data on usage and dosage.

July 6, 2011 at 10:22 AM | Unregistered Commenterdjcahill

As far as Jeter goes? It is a "no-brainer" he'll get in, due to the Yankee stigma, media darling, etc. Now here come my "A Time To Kill" moment. Look at his numbers and his career, close your eyes, and now "imagine he was a career Ranger". Would he be in then?

July 6, 2011 at 10:42 AM | Unregistered CommenterRicky in Fort Worth

Ricky,

that was classic. here's my Time to Kill moment for all yankees players "YES THEY DESERVE TO DIE!!!! AND I HOPE THEY BURN IN HELL!!!!

July 6, 2011 at 10:50 AM | Unregistered CommenterDcaggie06

@ Ricky

Regardless of what team he played for, I think he would get in because he was a starter at a premium position on a team that won 5 championships. Now, you can certainly argue that he may have never come close to sniffing 5 championships if he were on a team other than the Yankees, but to just throw a blanket over the whole thing and say he gets in b/c he was a Yankee is selling the situation short, I think.

Shifting gears, look at Troy Aikman's career numbers...nothing remarkable really. However, he is a first-ballot HOF'er because he won three championships as the starting QB.

The point is, if Jeter had been a career Ranger and had won 5 championships as the starting SS, I guarantee you he would be a first-ballot HOF'er.

July 6, 2011 at 10:52 AM | Unregistered CommenterCaleb

Well, my point being, other than myself, NO ONE believes Mike Young to be a potential HOF'er. Jeter has 5 years more MLB time than Mike as of today. Give Mike 5 more years (or let he and Jeter retire with the same years of service) and their numbers will be earily similar. Both were leaders. But, Mike Young has started at each infield position, volunteering to switch more than once, admirably. I won't throw around the word "overrated" on Jeter, but I will say Mike is underrated nationally, by fans and media alike. But not by the players, as seen in the evidence of the players vote.

July 6, 2011 at 10:57 AM | Unregistered CommenterRicky in Fort Worth

Are there any players with 3,000 hits in their career other than Pete Rose that are NOT in the HOF (other than those not eligible yet)? Fair or not, there are certain stats (I know, stats that a lot of people here don't like) that pretty much bring with it eventual inclusion in the HOF. Jeter would be a HOFer no matter what team he played for.

I'm also tired of all this gnashing of teeth over did he/didn't he use PEDs. As for Griffey, he was 41 when he left baseball. Your body is allowed to start breaking down - even rapidly - at 41 with a schedule as demanding as MLB. The only people I think that may not deserve HOF entry are those that committed perjury by lying under oath about steroid use. As for the rest of them, what they used was perfectly legal, and the scope of what is considered a PED has become so broad that it's absurd.

Consider the case of Gaylord Perry - a pitcher who made a HOF career on throwing illegal pitches. HE even wrote a book about his use of an illegal pitch. Will he be kicked out of the HOF if you exclude guys for using legal substances? What about the guys who played in the decades of greenie use in baseball? According to some former major leaguers this may even include players such as Willie Mays and Willie Stargell. Are they gone from the HOF too?

This obsession with PED, and the absurdity that is sure to come in the next several years of HOF voting as "experts" start speculating on body mass, HR differentials by year, and so on, is going to turn the HOF process into farce..

For the record, as long as he never bet against his own team (thereby creating a conflict of interest), Pete Rose should be in the HOF too. He says he didn't, but I guess its still not known for sure whether he did or didn't.

July 6, 2011 at 11:22 AM | Unregistered CommenterDan

I want to preface by stating that I am (as it should be) a died-in-the-wool Yankee hater. And for most of the past 15 years, Jeter has been the "face" of Yankee nation, so with my rabid Ranger fan hat on, I can't stand the guy.

Likewise, I whole-heartedly appreciate the contributions that Young has made to the Rangers.

However, from a purely objective production standpoint I personally think that you are a little off base in your comparison of Young to Jeter for HOF candidacy purposes.

Young has played for roughly 10.5 seasons and has posted 29 WAR, according to FanGraphs. This gives him roughly 2.8 WAR per season.

By contrast, Jeter has played for 15.5 seasons and has posted 72.8 WAR, according to FanGraphs. This gives him roughly 4.7 WAR per season - or nearly 2 WAR per season more than Young, on average.

Additionally, Jeter has posted two seasons of 7+ WAR (1999 and 2009 - both seasons coincided with the Yanks winning the WS), while Young's best season was 2005 when he posted 4.6 WAR, according to FanGraphs.

Now it is possible for Young to play for another five years and perhaps improve on his career average production, but I highly doubt he will do so to the tune necessary to get him into the same league (production-wise) as Jeter.

Young is a great human being, a great teammate and a pretty damn good baseball player. I am personally quite pleased that he has been a career Ranger. But if he is a legitimate HOF candidate, I certainly have a hard time seeing it, at least at this particular juncture.


I will add that Jeter's "legend" as propagated by the media is probably a tad overblown, but harkening back to the Troy Aikman example, this is not an uncommon occurrence I will also add that the latest contract that the Yankees signed Jeter to is entirely asinine and he is currently being egregiously overpaid for his services, IMO.

July 6, 2011 at 11:27 AM | Unregistered CommenterCaleb

no way hamilton has used steroids since he was a professional. the guy gets tested more than anyone in baseball. i think that he has to be tested at least once a week because of his past drug problems. maybe in high school he did, but i think the crack-cocaine addiction and his reckless abandon approach in the field and on the basepaths that make him fragile as tissue paper now.

July 6, 2011 at 11:31 AM | Unregistered Commentertrey

Caleb - Frankie Crosetti played the same position for the same team and won 4 consecutive championships. Is he in? Just compare Young's numbers to Jeter's and do the 5 year math by average annual numbers, and they are very similar. Use any number achronym you want to try to justify Jeter. He is essentially Michael Young in pin-stripes.

July 6, 2011 at 11:38 AM | Unregistered CommenterRicky in Fort Worth

To confirm my suspicion, Craig Biggio, Pete Rose, and Rafael Palmeiro are the only three members of the 3,000 hit club not in the HOF. Biggio will be though he's not eligible yet, and Palmeiro and Rose are not for obvious reasons.. If you don't bet on baseball or lie to Congress, 3,000 hits is essentially automatic inclusion in the HOF - before you even get into considering defense or any other offensive stats. Furthermore, of the Top 50 hit leaders of all time that are eligible and not mentioned above, only Harold Baines (at #44) is not in the HOF. Since MY is at about 2,000 hits after 10 years, it is conceivable that he could make it to 3,000, in which case he would be in the HOF. If he falls short of 3,000 - they go to other stats and who knows?

Also, I don't see baseball writers or the veteran's committee basing any part of their decision on WAR.

July 6, 2011 at 11:54 AM | Unregistered CommenterDan

Ricky -

Evidently we will have to agree to disagree, as I am apparently not making myself very clear. I am not trying to "justify" anything, but rather I am attempting to make objective observations and/or comparisons.

Crosetti is actually a really good comparison to Michael Young, as he was worth an average of roughly 2.8 WAR per 600 plate appearances, thus giving him the equivalent of a 12.5 year career.

July 6, 2011 at 11:55 AM | Unregistered CommenterCaleb

Dan -

You are correct about the 3,000 hit milestone with respect to the HOF. You are also correct about MY and his potential HOF candidacy, should he attain 3,000.

As far as going to other stats for his candidacy if he falls short of 3,000 - I guess this is where I see the rub. I just don't see any other stats for them to go to - he doesn't hit for power, his fielding is certainly not HOF caliber and he isn't particularly patient at the plate. Basically, stroking singles and doubles is what got him to, and has kept him in the Bigs, so I think he HAS to get to 3K to have a chance.

You're also right about WAR with respect to HOF voters; I only bring it up in the earlier discussion in an effort to inject some measure of objective comparison of the on-field value/production of the two players.

July 6, 2011 at 12:02 PM | Unregistered CommenterCaleb

Trey you bring up a very good point. And i will agree that i dont belive he's used PEDs since coming back to baseball, but the question does remain did he use them prior to being tested non stop 6 ways from sunday. and i do agree that many of the drugs he used could take a toll on his body, but to be sober as long as he says he has been we should slowly begin to see a regression in injury proneness, not this stead progresssion. Again there are just too many variable, I just had never heard anyone mention roid usage on his behalf before so it was just something i thought might need to be considered.

@Dan i agree with you whole heartedly that Rose belongs in the HOF. And i think as soon as Selig is gone that will happen amongst other changes the fans have been aching for (like reply) and i guarantee you the new comissh would overturn blown calls like gallarraga's non perfect perfect game. we'll see though. I have an odd suspicion Torre is being groomed....

July 6, 2011 at 12:03 PM | Unregistered CommenterDcaggie06

"Wins Above Replacement" is not the number of all numbers, junior. It is graph for you to use, rather than use the brain God gave you to be objective. But keep running with it if you think it impresses people. Me, ehhh, not so much.

July 6, 2011 at 12:11 PM | Unregistered CommenterRicky in Fort Worth

I find it funny how a hamilton roids forum turns into a MY vs Jeter battle to the DEATH! lol

however, Rings count. they always will. you see a few examples here and there More so in baseball than any other sport mainly because in my opinion Baseball is the hardest sport to win a championship (lack of parity and salary cap to create parity... diff discussion) even if Jeter and MY were remotely close, Jeter would get in by default due to the amount of rings. bottom line. Jeter has 5 (i thought he had more..) MY 0. granted if MY does reach 3000 (which as of now i dunno if its possible) he's in. HOWEVER with the baseball writer's association's stance on anti PEDs possibly eleminating several players who normally would get in... this could cause MY to squeak in with about 2700 hits or so. But we're talking next to last to last ballot he can be on squeak in.

Regardless he'll be a Rangers HOFer, a fan fave for life, and could basically supplant Grieve as Mr. Ranger if he doesnt piss too many ppl off. I could see him transitioning to a hitting coach slowly, and then one day managing this team. skys the limit. Now if he were to manage something like that and have success as a manager then theres another thing to add to his possibility to get in. And vs Jeter on that.... Jeter's no manager sorry. he's a decent baller, but he's just another diva in pinstripes.

July 6, 2011 at 12:16 PM | Unregistered CommenterDcaggie06

Frankie Crosetti has 2 more rings than Jeter. About as relevant a stat as WAR.

July 6, 2011 at 12:24 PM | Unregistered CommenterRicky in Fort Worth

Ricky -

Again, we can agree to disagree - however, since you have chosen otherwise:

I have never asserted that any number is infallible (nor will I).

Impressing people (including yourself) is quite low on my list of priorities (thank you for the impromptu crack psych evaluation though - I hope you aren't expecting compensation?)

BTW - nice touch on the "junior" and the dig at your perception of my "improper utilization of my mental faculties" - much appreciated.

P.S. - Would not the sole utilization of one's individual mental capacity for purposes of objective observation be a fallacy, since the brain is the central storage location for each individual's perceptions of the world around them, which are (obviously) inherently subjective by nature?

July 6, 2011 at 12:29 PM | Unregistered CommenterCaleb

I'll withdraw the term if you feel slighted. But you do come across as a know it all or arrogant, throwing around a stat, which is Wins Above Replacement, which uses a fictitious replacement, and does not take into account other factors. Thus, it is essentially a flawed or theoretical stat. You sound better than that in all honesty. I look forward to discussing baseball with you, but not numbers on a graph crunched by others with fictitious input variables. But rather true baseball opinions, etc. So we will agree to disagree on this one. I am sure we will agree on plenty more.

July 6, 2011 at 12:53 PM | Unregistered CommenterRicky in Fort Worth

It's one thing to say Jeter gets more credit than he is due because of his Yankee "stigma" and media status...

But it is ridiculous to suggest that he is undeserving of the HOF...

July 6, 2011 at 1:10 PM | Unregistered CommenterPull T

I've turned my back on the Ped Era. I know it behooves good Baseball minds
to see records fall, that were so wholeheartedly earned, in previous Era's.
The grit, grind and focus, that are put up daily, for more than 10-15+ years, to
achieve the level of 3,000 hits is worthy of HOF.

Making a roster every year, for a Major League Team and having the ability to
get the appearances is HUGE. To imagine a swing, off by as little as 1/32 of an
inch, may induce a bad connect, is beyond most imaginations. Yet one hears
daily about the hitting woes of players. Round Ball on Round Bat 90-100mph
moving ball... 3,000 Hits-a LONG Career? I bow down humble- AMAZING feat.
Good points Rick. Franky C. wore #2 also. Very underrated player- Yank too!

July 6, 2011 at 1:18 PM | Unregistered CommenterHubZ

Who was better last year? Hanley Ramirez or Derek Jeter?

July 6, 2011 at 1:22 PM | Unregistered CommenterRicky in Fort Worth

Yup Hubz the whole PED thing sucks but theres two things i always like to consider, to make myself feel a little bettter...

1. Who says they weren't using some form of PEDs back in the 20s and stuff? sure you could say they didnt exist but maybe they used some form of horny goat weed or herbal crap like that. Coulda used cattle steroids or something or boosted themselves with extra testosterone who the hell knows. i dont. but it'd be insane if we found out babe ruth was cranking homeruns like nobodys business cuz he was using something to enhance performance.

2. the argument with PEDs is it takes away the fairness of the game and so forth. Well is it really that unfair if like 90% of the league (not that its ever been that high obvious exaggeration) at some point was on PEDs, pitchers and hitters included.

We'll never really know how bad it was, all we can hope is that we cleaned it up, and are moving towards better testing to prevent this from happening again. regardless some ppl are gonna try to cheat (i'm looking at you manny) no matter what, and new stuff will be developed, its just human nature. i'm just hoping to get past this as an era in which there were so many doing it, and moving on to where the game is whole again.

Sucks though, cuz regardless, anytime some goes bautista everyone is gonna be suspicious. maybe one day we'll move past all that.

July 6, 2011 at 1:35 PM | Unregistered CommenterDcaggie06

Ricky -

I get exactly what you are saying with regard to WAR and other stats (fictitious input variables, etc).

I guess the reason that I like the stat (and others like it) is that, even though you may not agree with the formula or the derivation of the number, at least by it attempts to look at all players in the same manner (i.e. the formula attempts to evaluate all players in the same basic fashion).

I guess when I think of comparing players using the eyeball test, I am reminded of the game we all played when we were kids where someone whispers "Uncle Johnny wears suspenders" in another kids ear and by the time the tenth kid in the circle gets the information, he thinks the original quote was “Aunt Josephine eats grapes", or something like that. The point is, we all see something different - that's just human nature.

I guess that's why, in my mind at least, stats like WAR are at least somewhat useful in attempting to objectivity compare players.

The bottom line on the Jeter/Young HOF thing - it really doesn’t matter at this point anyway since they both have (presumably) quite a bit of baseball left to play in their careers. Realistically, we need to have this HOF discussion in 7-8 years, after they have both completed their playing careers and we have had time to digest the context of their careers as well.

July 6, 2011 at 3:24 PM | Unregistered CommenterCaleb

That was well put Caleb. It's not only logical, but a pragmatic view. What I don't
like, are so many of Saber Mentality hold too tight and lose the enjoyment of the game.
It becomes the major factor in argument or at least the comparability of elite or not.
It becomes their total perspective. It eventually burns some out of the enjoyment- sad.

I'm sure Matt Harrison has all Sabers waiting for the next group of numbers to file,
before scratching of heads stop. I, for one, saw tenacity and a grip on his progress.
It's more humanistic. I swear, I will never get bored nor cynical. The element of the
intangibles... David v. Goliath in form, works for me. I have an underdog mentality.
I love an over achiever in almost ALL facets of life. There lies the Passion. The Thrill.
A triple. An inside park HR or a come from behind win. Bengie Mo's 2010 Hitting Cycle.
Any 2bit schmuck, can be a part of, without being judged elite or judged worthy...
That's Baseball to me.

July 6, 2011 at 4:24 PM | Unregistered CommenterHubZ