Tonight in chat there was a spirited debate about Luck and and Skill sets and the such all hinging on SABER metrics. As usual Rangers100 was very firm in his statements and as usual he made me think, which is one of the things I like about BBTiA.

I made the statement that there is no such thing as luck in a skill based sport like baseball. My belief is that over the long haul good luck and bad luck tend to cancel themselves out. That hitters and pitchers tend to make their own luck with skill and knowledge.

So as I often do I went to "The Book" and learned that as far as SABER or Saber is concerned the type of luck I was referencing is the "laymans" type of luck and the luck SABER tries to account for is different.

So very fascinating.

From The Book:

"When sabermetricians speak of “luck” they don’t necessarily mean “a lucky bounce or a close call.” They simply mean variation around a player’s true talent or likely mean performance at any given time."

Here is the link:
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/what_do_sabermetricians_mean_by_luck/

Living in the Matrix... everything is predetermined, silly.

and NOBODY makes the first jump....... well maybe Ogando.....