What is your opinion of the A.J. Pierzynski signing?
MJH on accountability
Is Dutch going to be the Arm out and give up his Starter Post to:Feldman or Hunter, when time comes to re-inject a New 5th Man?Who goes to the Pen, for needed help?
Branch Ricky, one the greatest talant evaulators in the history of the game, and for you youngsters, the Dodger GM that brought Jackie Robinson to the Major Leagues often said "Never give up on a promising left hander until he is at least 30 years old". To wit...Sandy Koufax, after his first six seasons in the majors had a losing record of 36-40....and you can look it up.
Neither Holland or Harrison engender a lot of confidence ... sorta back when CJ was the closer.
Feldman will be the first that forces TEX to make a decision whether into the rotation or bullpen. Hunter when he gets into game-shape (whatever that means for Tommy) needs to string together 4 or 5 QS and wait his turn.
Branch Rickey was a Baseball Gawd, but he didn't work in a very watered down Baseball Environment, as Todays Era. He turned down many a Lefty, in his day. I'm not saying give up on Dutch, but does he still deserve a rotation spot? Maybe with Feldman, Hunter & Holland, you get the same/similar results. Harrison... complete enigma. Is ASB Trades the fix or cure? Then there is Ramirez and a couple of others waiting below. Which avenue is best to bring top results for the West & ALCS run, in July and on?
I wonder if Holland's role is going to be late inning lefty setup. He has been wildly erratic as a starter. Still has enormous promise, though... I think they have to at least give him a whole season to try to learn and improve.
WWJDD, I agree that putting Holland in the pen as a late inning set up man would probably be the wisest choice, once Hunter or Feldman is healthy enough to return. But then that kind of gives us a problem with having 3 lefties in that role with Holland/Oliver/Rhodes. I'd definitely prefer to have another righty in the rotation in place of Dutch, but I don't see that happening until Hunter or Feldman returns.
Yeah - I guess I should have finished my thought. The other part of that thought was for Texas to cut Rhodes, who just looks very very old. That's a pretty drastic move, though. And like I said, I think Texas should give Holland a chance in there over an entire season - he needs experience. He might be a decent mid-rotation guy, who knows? He's just not consistent at the moment. My thought was that he is probably a very good lefty setup guy right now, since he'd never have to face guys more than once, and he does throw pretty hard. Pros and cons of making that move, obviously... just thinking aloud.
I'd probably burn down the ballpark if they replaced Holland with Scott @#$%ing Feldman
Jim~ I'm pretty much with you. Feldman got a fat contract for what? A very Soft 17 wins?Hunter? Mmm, I don't think he's an improvement over Dutch. Hunter maybe the better choice in relief and allow Dutch some rope for the whole season. Too much upside I see, in Holland.Things may change, if Daniels finds a TORP in trade, come ASB. Feldman, nor Hunter are ready.
Nolan spent Hicks money on a cloning machine. Our new Right Hander.... Ogando 2.0
We'd be below Seattle, w/o Ogando's performance and still questioning three starter slots, with a hard questioned bull pen. That's really hard to conceive.Even with Face's big start, is there any doubt Alexi Ogando is our MVP so far?
HubZ, Alexi Ogando is without a doubt our MVP so far. And concering Holland, he just needs to keep pitching. If the Rangers decide to replace Dutch with Scott Feldman, my head may explode. Feldman needs to be our long-relief/spot starter at best. And maybe, just maybe when Hunter comes back, I could see Holland being pushed into a late-inning role in the pen. Who knows, Holland may be what our bullpen needs...he certainly has the "stuff" to get it done.
Rickey shouldn't get so much credit for Koufax. He was out of the organization long before he finally had those five good years.
He's wasn't the first guy to realize the value of lefthanded pitching and besides that, you never had to make any tough decisions in those days. No arbitration, no free agency, the reserve clause and a nearly infinite minor league empire meant there was no opportunity cost to keeping a guy forever.
How about Neil Ramirez to replace Holland and Holland to replace a Bush or Tomko in the bullpen?
Naa Hes probably not ready
Rickey had nothing to do with Koufax. He sold out of the Dodgers in 1950, which is a huge story in itself. I believe he went on to be GM-Pirates from there.He rebuilt the Cards and the Dodgers from ground up. Both enjoyed great Farms,because of his innovations. You did get the cream of the crop talent, if you hadthe backing and a good fan attendance. Bill Boards were actually big team money.He essentially took the game to respectability and a profitable, working business.If it wasn't for his input, Major League Baseball wouldn't have made it through theGrt Depression Yrs. Of course, one can read several great books on Branch Rickey.Branch would suggest to Daniels- "keep Holland in the rotation, barring high water".
Next RHP addition to the rotation will still be spot starts from Dave Bush with Neil Ramirez the next option although he's not on the 40man.
I had inflated optomism thinking that Feldman would be ready by the end of May ... his knee surgery was just over 6 months ago. Realistically, if he makes an appearance this season it will be more likely in middle or long relief probably displacing Tomko. I doubt his endurance given his knee recovery will make him a SP option this season.
As far as quality starter ... I don't think Hunter is a significant upgrade over Holland (or Harrison) to the extent that Tommy displaces either Holland or Harrison. As I said up near the top of this thread ... Hunter needs to focus on establishing himself and being ready to duplicate his 2010 9-0 start by racking up quality starts in AAA.
I think TEX needs to maintain a program of having 10 SPs to carry the season. With the starting 5 plus Bush that means they need another four SPs ready to give them multiple starts before August.
-#7: IMO Neil Ramirez is the top RH SP at AAA in front of Hunter with 1.25WHIP and 10.3 K/9 in 39.1 innings and 8 starts. While Ogando's SP success has been fantastic ... Ramirez' jump from A+ to AAA is already the most impressive move by a TEX system SP this season. (Would require a 40man roster move)
-#8: Hunter may get activated before Ramirez ... but he's got lots of work to do before he's ready.
-#9: Zach Jackson is the top LH SP but would only displace Holland or Harrison if there were a massive meltdown or injury amongst the starting five but would only see a spot start if Bush is already been inserted full time. (Would require a 40man roster move)
-#10: The #10 spot is vacant in my opinion. Michael Kirkman has not had a seaon like he did last year. Brent Tomko on the active roster simply enables TEX to use Bush in a swing role while neither Seth McClung or Derek Hankins at AAA ought to be an option in filling the #10 position either.
The short list of options past a recovering Hunter really shows how critical it is for TEX to find ways of protecting Holland and Harrison by generating runs in their starts to keep pressure off both of their tendencies to have "except for one inning" good games.
Oh and ... I'll get back to you on modifying that depth chart if Webb ever gets his 4seam averaging 89mph over 6 RH starts. Until then ... he's just an on-roster project. Odds are he goes back on the DL before completing his 30 day rehab.
Not sure this will interest anyone but I put together some stats on ten different pitchers that reflect where they were on a statistical level at particular ages. The purpose was to determine what if any difference age makes in determining the development of a pitcher.
The ten pitchers I chose were Roy Halladay, Johan Santana, Jon Lester, John Danks, Cliff Lee, Josh Johnson, Matt Garza, AJ Burnett, Edison Volquez, and Zack Greinke. I evaluated each player for their age 23, 24 and 25 seasons using IP, ERA, FIP, K/9, BB/9, and WAR for each player during each season.
What I found was group improvement with each successive year and the greatest level of improvement occurring in the year the group turned 25.
The average of the group at age 23 was 88.5 IP, 5.85 ERA, 4.77 FIP, 6.94 K/9, 4.42 BB/9 and a WAR of 1.5. At age 24 the average improves to 117.9 IP, 3.87 ERA, 3.85 FIP, 7.31 K/9, 3.6 BB/9 and a WAR of 2.4. At age 25 the level of improvement is significant at 185 IP, 3.34 ERA, 3.48 FIP, 8.18 K/9, 3 BB/9 and a WAR of 4.7.
By comparison the year Holland turned 23 his numbers were 138 IP, 6.12 ERA, 5.1 FIP, 6.96 K/9, 3.06 BB/9 and a WAR of 1.1. He wasn’t quite as dominant as the others I compared him to but the one caveat to his numbers is that in 2009 he didn’t turn 23 until October 9th. Only two other pitchers in this group had a similar birthday. Matt Garza was born on November 26th and Zack Greinke was born on October 21st.
Even with Holland’s struggles last year he has shown flashes of brilliance and if given time I still believe he could project to a #2 or #3 in the Rotation. By the way his numbers so far this year dovetail nicely with the group’s age 24 averages. To this point he has thrown 59.2 IP, 4.68 ERA, 3.86 FIP, 7.24 K/9, 3.32 BB/9, and a WAR of 0.9. with 2/3 of the season remaining.
If Holland continues on this same progression I would argue that he will turn into an innings eating #2 with an ERA a little high but FIP, K/9, BB/9 and WAR on target with this group’s average.Which is why I would rather spend the rest of this year letting him grow into a roll rather than bounce him back and forth between AAA and The Show.
At this point I don't believe we can expect much from Feldman or Webb this year outside of a few second half spot starts and while Hunter has earned his Big Game nickname I don't believe he projects higher than a #4. I'll see where he fits compared to the rest of the group just for grins though.
I don't see how you call up Ramirez when he hasn't even averaged 5 IP a game down in RR. He hasn't pitched that great in 2 out of his last 3 starts either. This would be another case of calling someone up when they're weren't ready like we did with Kirkman (control issues at the time), Volquez (had walked 72 in only 121 IP at the time), etc.
Holland clearly should stay in the rotation; at least until if and when Hunter is healthy. Feldman will go to the pen as a seventh inning, long reliever. He won't have the stamina to start this year. Ramirez started the season in A ball. He is at least a year away. I doubt Bush makes it back to the bigs.
Arp made a great post. You simply have to live with the ups and downs of young pitching, especially young lefties. We will see the same thing when Perez finally makes it to the show.
Here is the data on Hunter. He was born the same year as Holland just a few months earlier on July 3rd. In 2009, the year he turned 23, Hunter accumulated 112 IP, 4.10 ERA, 4.40 FIP, 5.1 K/9, 2.65 BB/9 and a WAR of 1.8. A very solid year for a young pitcher to say the least considering he beat the group average in every category except K/9. Last year however his numbers were not quite as solid. He had 128 IP, 3.73 ERA, 4.99 FIP, 4.78 K/9, 2.32 BB/9 and a WAR of 0.7. His IP, ERA and BB/9 were all better than the group average however you can argue that his BB/9 were probably the primary reason his ERA and IP were as good as they were because his FIP, K/9 and WAR were not very good at all. In fact looking at his numbers like this it’s remarkable to me he ended the season 9-6 and not 6-9.
I still think a healthy Hunter can have a place in this rotation (keeping in mind that I have no idea where that place is at the moment, maybe swap him and Ogando out every time that spot comes up in the second half to reduce wear and tear on Ogando's arm) and perform well when going against opposing #4’s ,5’s and the occasional #3 but if his FIP and K/9 don’t improve it will be difficult for him to maintain anything close to his current 22-12 big league record. Although if Hamilton continues to hit a HR seemingly ever time Hunter takes the mound fate might prove me wrong
@kristen w ... I said Ramirez was the NEXT RH option given the improbabilty of holding up for 6+ or Hunter getting ready. I noted that Hunter would get the first activation call because bringing Ramirez up would require a roster move.
Throwing out his two weak starts (3.1 and 3.2) he's averaged around 5 innings. His one A+ start he didn't go 5 ... and in 2010 at Hickory he didn't average over 5 innings either. I wonder if he's being held to a developmental level of innings even though he's at AAA and getting guys out.
Believe his endurance capacity goes to your point that TEX is unlikely to bring him up ... although he may be the best RH talent available right now.
I could see someone in late August going on the DL 'strategically' and Ramirez being brought up to be on the roster on 31 August to make him post season eligible... just like what was expected of Scheppers going into the season. If not then ... he will certainly get purchased and added to the 40man and activated in September.
At the end of the day ... (by next season or 2013 at the latest) ... IMO Ramirez has more upside than Hunter.
I'm very happy with the results of our Starting Staff.NOTHING has changed my opinion, from December 2010.I think we need to find/sign a TORP, for a Minimum 3yr stay.A shutdown arm, would certainly add bonus to CJ, Colby & O.Thats what's needed, IMHO, to ready & carry Rangers to P-Offs.I feel secure the setup/closer issue, will right itself before August.
@HubZ ... your OP posed whether Feldman or Hunter would supplant Holland as #5 but now only two days later (above post) you offer a really conflicted statement:
"I'm very happy with the results of our Starting Staff. ... I think we need to find/sign a TORP, for a Minimum 3yr stay".
Know it's all complex ... but are you thinking Holland needs to move to a relief role displaced in the rotation by Feldman or Hunter ... or that you are now happy with the SP rotation which includes Holland ... but you want to go out and get a TORP on a 3 year deal?
So which is it ... you looking for a new #5 ... a new #1 ... or want to play with the cards in your hand?
Consider this ...
-Trading midseason for an available TORP would cost offscale costly in talent you'd give up for your playoff run
-Real TORPs don't sign 3 year deals
-TEX SP ERA is #5 AL behind Tampa and the rest of the ALW ... so what is the outcome you are looking for from a TORP?
Lastly, above you say: "I feel secure the setup/closer issue, will right itself before August."
I think you are overly optomistic because TEX is clearly not comfortable with the middle relief, setup, or closer spots. TEX is working with Lowe to establish himself first in a 7th inning role ... perhaps moving toward an 8th inning setup role... but is looking at external options for both setup and closer while still working with Feliz to reestablish his 9th inning dominance ... but it is clear they are not comfortable with what they are seeing. Activation of Tateyama is the latest experiment to strengthen the middle relief ... although he's going to be far more effective against RH hitters ... but still may be an effective option.
I remain of the opinion that TEX will need to have 10 SPs contribute to the season final outcome. There is at lease one or two undefined SPs on that list of 10 ... but it is more likely that what they are looking for first is a spot starter to fill in either the 3, 4, or 5 slot ... rather than a TORP.
W-my-Watch~I can't argue with anything you've mentioned.Hunter/Feldman was quick spec, until reps found foul again just a couple of days later... hence, new scenario- savvy?
Do I think the Club will go into a playoff mindset, without acquiring a NEW TORP? NO... which was my thinking, in the Winter of 2010.
Three years remaining or an extension to contract,was my minimal thinking... acquired by trade.We don't need a rent-a-arm. Sign-able is a prerequisite.Yes obviously, that would move one arm over to relief.Holland? Maybe, but Dutch should stay in rotation until.That's a two sided sword. A catch 22, even. I like Dutch,but he won't take us deep into Championships, as of now.
The whole staff is going to be KEY to our success.It's not redesigning the wheel or formula. Pitching winsChampionships. Getting the staff to hit on all cylinders has been unfortunate. Certainly achievable, by goodinside moves or Daniels tweaking a trade(s) before August.
It's not rocket science. I don't think I have the answers, butI do enjoy the feedback and different point of views/perception.I appreciate your involvement. I'll try not to be so cryptic, but...Metaphors? Yep, it's just the way my writing comes to me in mind.A long used, old hemp rope, is what it is... as the Old Coot I am.
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