2010 Neftali Feliz; All-Star closer and Rookie of the Year. An incredible load of talent.

2011 Neftali Feliz; Inconsistent pitcher with apparent flaws.

Neftali Feliz verdict: A successful closer who is very far from being a polished product. Seems to have mental lapses and/or confidence issues. Has an obvious change in arm-speed and delivery when throwing off-speed pitches. Has a noticeable change in mechanics from last year as he seems to be rushing his delivery rather than loading-up, and firing like he did in 2010. The ERA is low, the BB's are up, the K/9 is down and so is the velocity. My personal opinion on 2011 Neftali Feliz is that this is all a result of mechanics. He looks very different from 2010. But it is something Mike Maddux and Neftali Feliz can correct. What are your opinions on our closer?

As of 19 May 2010 Feliz after 20 appearances was 1-1 with 9SV and 2BS.

As of 19 May 2011 Feliz after 13 appearances (and missing 16 days on the DL) is 0-0 with 8SV and 1BS.

Seems like he's close to if not exactly where he was last year.

Seems like he's close to if not exactly where he was last year.

That's very wrong.

Feliz has only had 3 save opportunities this year that were 1-run games when he entered. He's 2 for 3. The others were greater than 1-run leads which could basically be closed 99% of the time by any MLB pitcher.

Feliz this year so far is not even close to what he was last year:

K/9
2010: 9.22
2011: 5.27

BB/9
2010: 2.34
2011: 7.24

K/BB
2010: 3.94
2011: 0.73

xFIP
2010: 3.50
2011: 5.50

Fastball (avg. mph)
2010: 96.3
2011: 94.7

First pitch strike %
2010: 57.3%
2011: 49.1%

Swinging strike %
2010: 11.9%
2011: 7.1%

There's no doubt Feliz is getting positive results as he is still closing games, my only problem is the way that he is getting the job done. Mechanically, he does not look very close to 2010.

But as Rangers100's stats show, Feliz is not nearly as dominant as 2010. Saves can be a little overrated. The thing I find most alarming is Feliz's BB/9. His velocity has dropped, yet his rate of walking batters is incredibly raised.

His velocity is way down and his control way off (first pitch and swinging strike rates way down).

Never a good combo.

I'm not so much worried about what it means for this year as I believe closers are misused and thus highly overrated, but what bothers me about his continuing to struggle is that it threatens to keep him out of the starting rotation even next year.

Rangers100: I'm more interested in results rather than all those stats on how it appeared. You have used 2010 complete season versus quarter season 2011 stats which is not representative of how a pitcher grows through a season.

In 2010 only 17 of Feliz' 40 saves were 1-run saves (42.5%). What's his percentage of 1-run saves this season?

Mike G: Noted. Am sure Mike Maddux would appreciate you spending some time with Feliz next time he's in town so you can help Maddux and Andy Hawkins get things straightend out to your satisfaction.

Guys ... it's freakin May! He just came off the DL. Get back to me when you work up a comparison of partial 2010 versus partial 2011.

It's not a matter of comparing Feliz's 2011 results partially through the season, it's a matter of knowing something is clearly a little off with this guy. I'm sure he'll be the Neftali Feliz of old by the end of the season (I hope), but what I'm trying to point out is that if Feliz's early season trends continue, we're looking at a completely opposite pitcher as opposed to 2010.

And from what I've seen from Neftali's mechanics, he appears to be rushing his delivery, and opening his left shoulder a bit too early which would obviously lead to control problems. I've been around baseball and pitching my entire life and I know a little bit about mechanics but I'm no pitching coach by any means, and I'm sure Mike Maddux probably has seen the same things I've noticed, it's just a matter of Feliz executing.

Rangers100: I'm more interested in results rather than all those stats on how it appeared.

Same here.

The stats I gave above are controlled by no one (on the defensive team) but Feliz. Additionally, none of them involve batted ball randomness. Saves, W-L, and ERA are stats that are controlled by 9 players on the defensive team and involve lots of batted ball randomness.

So yes, I am glad that the Rangers have won 8 of 9 games in which Feliz entered the game with a Rangers lead of 1-3 runs. But I realize they have done that largely in spite of how he has performed.

In 2010 only 17 of Feliz' 40 saves were 1-run saves (42.5%). What's his percentage of 1-run saves this season?

2 of the 8; 25%.

Rangers100 ... and how were those pitcher independant stats through 19 May 2010 or the same number of events as this season? Make that comparison 2010 to 2011 and you will not be stuck with having to resolve the small sample size for 2011.

I'm willing to give Nefi a little rope, after coming off the DL. Get real. You don't
think he's going to be tentative and have some rust? I'm betting there was a few
moments of pain, during his DL, that his carreer flashed before him. Did you see
his facial expression last night, as he handed the ball to RW and walked off?
Nefi is adjusting to the reality. This is a Man-child experiencing new 2011 frontiers.
All not perfect as the 2010 Pom Poms, that covered he and team in confetti & glitter.
Please, It's still way too early after his DL, to expect 100mph to hit a gun, once again.
If ever.

Rangers100 ... and how were those pitcher independant stats through 19 May 2010 or the same number of events as this season? Make that comparison 2010 to 2011 and you will not be stuck with having to resolve the small sample size for 2011.

Instead of using May 19 (earlier season start and Feliz's DL stint this year skew that number), let's take his first 13.2 IP of both (the amount he's pitched this year so far).

Through 13.2 IP last year:

18 Ks
2 BBs
2.72 xFIP

And his velocity was much better.

This isn't some Feliz bashing thing. I like the guy a lot as a pitcher and person (from what I know of him). I wanted him to be a starter instead of closer and would still prefer he be a starter right now.

But he has very clearly been much worse so far this year than he was last year.

I'm willing to give Nefi a little rope, after coming off the DL. Get real. You don't
think he's going to be tentative and have some rust?

He was just as bad before going to the DL.

I'm not bashing the guy. Just pointing out that something's not right compared to last year. And it hasn't been at any point this year.

I think its a little immaturity on his part. I think the back and forth between whether he'd close or start has gotten in his head. i think it really hissed him off when he made the decision himself that he wanted to start and the rangers didnt stick with that. he's got the same stuff there's just something a little off. granted Ogando has been one of our better pitchers it makes you wonder if when hunter went down should they have gone with Feliz and kept "their word" (i use that loosely they never promised him anything, but they definitely gave him the impression he'd be starting if possible) and had ogando close instead of the opposite. woulda coudla shoulda.... i personally was calling for ogando to start over feliz from the beginning of ST. funny how things work out.

I'm wondering if he is still injured, and the rangers rushed him back from the DL because of the bullpen problems? I'm afraid we may see him back on the DL soon

Feliz's second consecutive blown-save against the Royals was a perfect example of some of the problems he has been facing. Neftali's mechanics appeared improved, velocity was much higher than earlier in the season, yet his location was shaky to say the least and he refused to throw anything other than a fastball. A 100 mph is great and all, but if a hitter is sitting on your fastball it doesn't matter if it's 110 mph, an MLB hitter is going to do something with it. There were many instances during Feliz's outing that I know for a fact that if he had thrown an off-speed pitch, we'd be talking about a 1-0 win. The talent is definitely still there, Feliz just has to grow confidence in his other pitches and learn that there's more to closing than throwing, you actually have to pitch to sustain success at the Major League level.