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MJH on accountability
Remember Joey's post a few months ago that gave us three perspectives from three different scouts about Mitch Moreland's projected upside.
There was a lot of discussion about the HR projection numbers. I believe all three scouts projected Moreland to hit 10-15 home runs.
Lets look at results so far.
Moreland has had 74 PA's and 3 HR's. That is 1 HR per 24 PA's. Last year he hit 1 HR per 19 PA's.
So this year's number so far is not so far off from last year's and with just one home run in the next few games it could be better. And remember last year (in only about two months) Moreland had two 2 HR games. In spite of that he is still close to his 2010 pace.
Based on the number of PA's Moreland has had over the first 24 games of the season he projects to get 500 PA's over a 162 game season.
I predict he could get PA's at a better pace than he has been if he gets hot, and I don't think he really has yet. But at the current pace over 500 PA's Moreland projects to hit twenty 2011 HR's if he keeps up his 1 HR per 24 PA's pace.
Bottom line, I would not be surprised if Moreland ends up proving that he is a 25-30 HR per season guy if he is an everyday player. Michael Young (and remember he has played more games in the 6 hole than the 3 hole) has had 100 PA's over the first 24 games of the season. If Moreland got PA's at that pace over a 162 game season he would get around 650 PA's which would put him at 27 HR's during one season if he keeps the 1 HR per 24 PA's pace.
Add to that 40 doubles and a .380 OBP and you have a guy who has over a .900 OPS, and who is one of your hardest working most patient hitters. His walk to strike out ratio is a lot better so far this year as well (10/9) (not that it was particularly bad last year).
WIth numbers like these (if he is capable of providing them over the long haul) does Moreland project to be an at least slightly above average 1st baseman even in an American League full of excellent hitters at that position?
His defense has been great so far this year as well. He hasn't committed an error and has made numerous great scoops and snags.
When Hambone gets back I wonder whether Wash will move Young or Moreland to the two hole. Andrus just does not seem to be a top of the order hitter. I say put him in the 8 or 9 hole and get back to back to back speed with Andrus, Borbon, and Kinsler. I think he will hit better at the bottom too simply because he will feel less pressure.
The only player worth a d@mn right now thats what!
Who is: awesome?
Can anyone remember Moreland missing a tough scoop this year so far? I haven't watched all the games so I don't know, but all I see is him scooping balls out of the dirt left and right.
All i know is he's officially my baby daddy for this year. The kid just has the right approach to the game. He's money like Herm Edwards. "You play to win the game! You dont play it just to play it". Mitch Moreland is essentially an upgraded better version of David Murphy. He just does everything he can, to the fullest of his ability and he plays the game right. When I think of Mitch Moreland, I think of America. The good America... not today's crappy O-bomb America. I'm talking Rocky IV America....
Yeah this is my ultra gay love letter to Mitch.
Mitch, you are what baseball do.
Keep it up.
Above average is tough simply due to the mathematics...gotta be about the 5th best in the league to claim that with a straight face.
Tex, Gonzalez, Cabrera, Morneau, Konerko...not sure anyone could muster any sort of argument that MM isn't behind those guys. And that's before you start ranking him amongst his true peers like Barton, Butler, Morales....
Take Teixeria. In the years when he hasn't hit 40 home runs I'm projecting Moreland, not entirely without precedent, to be matching or almost matching his production if he gets 600-650 PA's.
Also, I'm not asking whether Moreland is a top tier but rather whether he may be slightly above average at his position. Top 6 or 7 1st basemen would qualify for that, and I am not ruling out the possibility that Moreland could end up being as productive, or only a tick or two below some of the guys on your list.
That is the whole point of my post, to question whether Moreland's upside is being projected too low.
Take Butler. I'm projecting Moreland to be more productive than Butler's 2010 campaign. Right now I think Moreland, if he keeps up what he has done so far is somewhere between the top tier and the second tier (more average 1st basemen) guys, and it is not outside of the realm of possibility, taking Moreland's small sample size performance into account, that he could break into the top tier, elite 1st basemen in the league. But that is probably unlikely. Regardless, whether he is slightly above average or a solid average 1st basemen we have a great hitter, and he's a likeable guy and a hard worker. I think in the years to come he will definitely be a fan favorite if we keep him for the long haul.
I completely agree I think the set baseline for Moreland has been underestimated. At least right now it appears to be. But you have to look a CDs first year. We all thought he was the 2nd coming of Tex. We couldnt wait for his sophmore year, we all thought he was gonna be a stud. But he bombed. Then last year we thought the same thing. He was gonna get over the slump and 2010 was CDs year. But it never panned out. (i do however find it ironic how they named him Crush Davis after Bull Durham, cuz it appears he might be a perpetual Minor Leaguer).
Right now, it doesnt appear that this is gonna happen with Moreland. I love the way he approaches the game. And i think he has the advanced maturity and work ethic to far exceed the "average potential' label he's been given his entire scouting career.
The good thing, is it appears mgmt has begun to notice. Theyre starting to play him more against Lefties, and they were'nt willing to part with him for Garza (i think it was even Greinke as well)
Maybe... just Maybe... we mightve found a diamond in the rough
He is a solid major league first baseman on a 1st division club. Like an Ike Davis
Agree with all the love for our right fielder, Mitch Moreland. wait, what? The lineup today is heart breaking! I'm really confounded as to why our best 1st baseman isn't playing first and shares HIS position with THREE other guys. It's just maddening. I've met Mitch a few times and he's just not the guy to say, "Coach, I'm going to say this as humbly as I can: I play first base." Someone in that clubhouse, front office, season ticket sales, SOMEWHERE has got to get this insanity to stop. We have ever position WELL covered, except Center with Josh out, and I'd rather see MY flop around out there than in there dirt again. Sorry to vent everybody...
Meh....Is just semantics.
If you want to call a "top 6 or 7" guy out of 14 "above average" feel free, but for me, that falls decidedly into the middle of the pack. Of course, middle of the pack for 400k ain't bad when the top tier are all 8 figure guys.
Calling a dude "average" when comparing him to major league starters is by no means an insult.
The point is that Moreland could be solidly above average one day based on his performance to date. Did you read my original post? I'm not saying he is now but projecting him at 10-15 home runs and saying hes a Butler type is not taking adequate account of his appropriate projected upside. Maybe he will show his true colors and devolve into a Butler type hitter more in line with his scouting report,. but for now there is a possibility that he could be solidly above average based on what he has done so far. Right now it makes sense to see him somewhere between solid average and solidly above average because we don't know whether he will improve or come back down to his scouting report. We are going on very little major league experience, but I have a feeling that he has not yet got really hot, that we haven't seen all of what he can do yet. Regardless, even if he continues hitting at the current pace he would project as a 25-30 HR guy with 40-60 doubles and a .380 OBP which would put him right up there with some of the elite 1st basemen in the league at least offensively.
I agree, however i'll take mitch moreland in the game anyway i can than see him ride the pine.
Having 5 game winning RBI shows he a clutch hitter. My eyes don't deceive me either.Moreland is haveing a very nice year and is proving more than adequate @1b- steady glove.
I don't see why they don't put MY at 1b and use Moreland as a pinch runner/hitter.
Moreland played in the outfield more than 1st base in the minors. He has a strong arm. He is the second best defensive 1st baseman on the club. Hopefully they haven't found a hole in his swing, but it appears he been missing curves lately. He is Clutch, & should be set at 1st once Hamilton gets back in the lineup.
@Scooby-I really think putting MY at first and using Moreland as a pinch runner would be missing the point.
Missing the point - how ironical
With 10 homers up to this point in the season Moreland projects to hit 25 home runs in a 550 at bat season. I'm not sure he will get that many at bats but if he did I think he is still projecting into the 25-30 home runs per year range.
His .355 OBP and .490 slugging to this point might be significantly higher if he gets really hot which I'm not sure he has yet or if he stops having the two week slumps he has been accustomed to up to this point in the season.
I still wonder whether Mitch Moreland may at some point qualify as an elite 1st basemen. This is his first full year of seeing big league pitching. Regardless of what he might be capable of upon maturity above league average to the tune of 2.5 WAR above replacement as Joey indicated in today's post is great.
Plus, remember that grand slam that got erased?
Did Wash really say "end it" to Moreland last night?
I think Moreland's severe struggles against LH'ers preclude him from being considered an above-average 1B'man right now, not to mention he has the advantage of being a LH'ed hitter playing in a very friendly LH'ed-hitter's park. His away numbers are kind of average. I think long-term though he'll end up a well-rounded Victor Martinez-like .300 BA/.380 OBP/25+HR hitter.
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