I predict:

Feliz will be in the starting rotation to start the year. There is just too much to lose here, potentially. You can switch from starter to closer, you cannot switch from closer to starter.

Ogando will close to start the year. I think he would do fine in this role.

Strop will setup if Lowe continues down that road. Lowe probably needs time at AAA to get things back together anyways.

Questions:

What about the other bullpen spots after Rhodes, Strop (or Lowe), Oliver, O'Day, and Ogando?

Do you see Kirkman making the bullpen for middle relief or remaining stretched out at Round Rock?

Do you see Bush as your long man to start the year until Webb replaces Harrison and is moved to the bullpen?

There's been talk that the bullpen is set but it sure doesn't seem that way. Is Mason Tobin being considered for the bullpen? I noticed he's been pitching a lot in Cactus League games.

"The bullpen" is really 2 things, the short bullpen (5 guys) and the long bullpen (2 guys). The short bullpen seems stocked. If Feliz starts, it's 5 of 6 from Ogando, O'Day, Rhodes, Oliver (all locks for the ML roster) and Lowe/Strop for the final spot. The long bullpen can't really be "set" until the rotation is set. I assume if the rotation actually is Wilson, Lewis, Feliz, Harrison, Hunter, then Holland gets one LR slot, Kirkman starts at AAA, and a RHP gets the other LR slot (either Bush or Tobin). Prediction: if that actually is the rotation, Harrison earns his slot and Hunter moves to LR, making way for Webb, and booting Bush/Tobin from the roster.

But you can't set your LR until you know your starting 5. If Feliz doesn't make the rotation, I assume Holland does, leaving a LR slot for Kirkman, with Feliz in the bullpen and Lowe/Strop both optioned to Round Rock.

I hope they option Lowe and give Strop his shot. I predict we'll all be VERY comfortable with him coming into games late by September. Actually, my top-level preference would be for O'Day to be optioned, Feliz to start, with Lowe and Strop both making the Big League 'pen. Even better, all of that happens, and Holland gets the #5 rotation gig, with LR going to Hunter (R) and Kirkman (L).

Have you guys been watching Holland's spring. His one "bad game" wasn't even that bad. He's in the rotation.

Some of you guys really seem knowledgeable about Sabermetrics. Is there anyway to quantify the best use of Feliz's talent perhaps resulting in either the most wins or perhaps some other benefit that would be best for the team. As a starter, he probaby will be considered a success if he wins 15 games but then if 5 starters all won 15 games, its 75 games and the Rangers need to win 90+. We all know they won't all win 15 games and there will certainly be more than 5 starters during the course of a year. If the bullpen needs to win say 30 games or better, how many of those will the closer win? Any ideas about how to quantify whether he should close or start?

@Scooby... I'm starting to question whether you watch the games or just look at 3 years stats and try to analyze them. Either way your not very good at it. O'day optioned for Lowe or Strop??? What in the hell is wrong with you. Gallow, (although I dont really like the guy) has a saying... Just watch the damn game... I wish you would

I like to read Joey and Scooby's dialogue.
Do I agree with them all the time? No, but they show me a different perspective of baseball talk.
If I want the same ol' same ol', I just go and read some "Newberg and Evan Grant".

Joe

You asked: "What about the other bullpen spots after Rhodes, Strop (or Lowe), Oliver, O'Day, and Ogando?" ....this is going to sound silly, but I just watched Tomko pitch 4 innings (he was good) of long relief with the first team... little strange if you ask me.
This is a guy who is not supposed to make the team, but you can not deny the fact that they are taking a real good look at him..... which brings me to my point; The bullpen and the starting rotation is still very much open for anybody to grab.
I have a feeling we may see some suprises before the season starts !!!!

I meant to say Joe and Scooby's dialogue, sorry.
Of course, I like Joey's stuff also.

Joey is the best. And I really mean that. I love it when he puts in his musical favorites. That really helps me get to know him better. Grant and Newberg are hacks compared to Joey. This site does seem to lean more toward the 'geeky' side of the game though. Not a bad thing-just saying. Those people who like baseball just for the purity of the game don't know what they are missing. Well I better go as there are some who take offense on the length of my posts.

Joe - If you want to post anything of length, keep doing so. That's the beauty of the forums. The people who complain will probably live.

John W. and Frisco Fan, I have to ask, if you are big fans of Evan and Jamey (I really enjoy Jamey, and Evan provides important factual information from the inside) and feel that's "all" one needs to read, why would you come to this site? Joey M. (who is awesome; I enjoy reading Scooby and Joe as well), Parks and other regular contributors are known saber-fans. I come here for a different take on things, one I find more to my liking (also love me some Joe Pos). Why would you seek out authors/writers/sites if only to go to them and bash that point of view? Again, I love this site because the content is different, and because I enjoy reading about all sorts of viewpoints as a fan. And I think the readers of this site and "stats" fans have a bit more going on cognitively than "schoolchildren," but i digress...

I'm assuming (er, hoping) that the last post wasn't really Joe.

@mnestis... I am a fan of the Rangers. I like Joey, I like Evan, I like Jaime... My input was simply to that knucklehead Scooby who thinks optioning O'day for Strop makes the club better... All I say to this is watch the game. Not once have I bashed Joey for his insight. It is good for a fan to gather different opinions of people who think differently about one thing... baseball. But when people say ignorant things like optioning O'day for Strop they clearly dont watch the games. To debate about something like bullpen you have to know what your talking about. Going back over the last 2 years what has O'day showed during the season that warrants being sent to AAA in favor of Strop. Now compare those numbers of Oday and Strop.. Doesnt make any damn sense. Watch the game an make opinions after that. Not what there projected WAR and ERA in Spring Training.

John, that's cool - looking back I lumped you and Frisco together unfairly. I admit that I often really like Scooby's take on things - what he's saying is not entirely unfounded if you go by spring training alone (which is not enough data to be meaningful really). Strop hasn't done anything yet, but count me as interested in seeing what he can do. If he keeps this up (maybe some time in AAA), I think he deserves a chance to show he can do it in the big show. O'Day i hope gets it together - again, it is a very small sample - but the results have been terrible so far. Not enough for a demotion, but enough that he's a guy worth watching too - has the league figured him out (like they figured out Dale Mahorcic after a couple of years). I keep thinking back to Mahorcic (i was like 10 when he pitched) when i see O'Day and i hope theirs more to him than that.

Tomorrow 3/22, through to the end of ST, we see better hitting & pitching. Scrubs have left the park. If you must run stats during ST, then start over. B-Holes start to tighten and arms get loose, but it's still spring training... New ballgame.

Feliz must start. You can't put him in at closer, then change him back to
Stater Mode, during the season... or at least to a point. We have to have
a stong #3- period. You increase the odds of getting a #3 performance,
by using Feliz as a starter. Someone will step up as closer. Be proactive.

Actually, word just came down that Feliz will not start - he's back to the closer spot. Holland, Hunter, and Harrison take the last 3 spots, but not necessarily in that order.

Joe being flat wrong? Imagine that.

@Fishbait, the difference in value of Feliz being in the rotation vs being the closer would seem to easily be quantified by WAR, as long as you believe Feliz would be among the Top 20 pitchers in either role:

The Top 10 starters in MLB posted WARs between 5.6 and 7.1 WAR. The next 10 were between 4.4 (including CJ and Colby) and 5.2 WAR.

The Top 10 relievers were between 2 and 3.1 WAR. The next 10 were between 1.5 and 1.9 WAR, including Oliver and Feliz at 1.5 and 1.7, respectively.

So let's look at the math, because answers in the starting rotation need to be found (Matt Harrison is in our rotation? Are you f'ing kidding me?).

The mathematical calculations above say Feliz, as a purported Top 20 starter, probably produces about 2 or 3 more WAR in that role than as a reliever, maybe a lot more than that if he becomes an elite starter. Obviously, many don't believe Feliz is going to be a Top 20 starter in his first yr, so it may take a yr or two before the Rangers can hope to enjoy that kind of windfall. But it wouldn't be out of the question for him to produce 3.5 to 4 WAR in 2011, given his (short) history of getting outs from ML hitters.

The conundrum in such mathematical reliance when making the final decision, though, is that you also need to ascertain who is going to replace Feliz in either role, so that you know the projected impact of his absence from that squad of pitchers this season. If we think Feliz can give us 1.7 to 2.2 WAR as a closer, then the very worst case scenario might be you lose about 1.5 to 2.0 WAR if the last guy added to the bullpen struggles quite a bit. Some of us might also want to quantify the impacts of changing each and every role within the bullpen, such as whether the set-up guy can handle a promotion to closer. SABR-minded evaluators would likely think ultimately talent wins out over anxiety most of the time for your typical reliever. However, if your simplified conclusions are that Feliz moving to the rotation degrades last yr's pretty good relief corps (4.5 total WAR) to average (2.7 to 3.0, i.e. Phillies, Dodgers squads), then a 1.5 to 2.0 WAR still seems like a reasonable impact. I would argue the impact is lessened somewhat by the acquisitions of Rhodes and possibly Lowe (once he gets in a groove), but exacerbated by the loss of FF, who was very reliable for a long stretch last yr.

I think the final answer is actually only about .5 total bullpen WAR lost, when you consider the depth of relief candidates the Rangers have, and that last yr's 4.5 WAR included a large dose of an ineffective trio of mop-up guys in Harrison, Nippert, and Ray (-1.0 WAR total in 126.2 relief innings).

With adding our favorite flamethrower as a starter, the value gained can be figured if you can accurately judge the likely difference between Feliz, and say, Harrison. This is were I believe the Rangers need to make real progress, as only two starters on this team right now have proven themselves to be more than marginally better than replacement level.

(Matt Harrison is in our rotation? Are you STILL f'ing kidding me?)

Feliz would be huge if he could produce even just 3 WAR in the rotation this yr, and/or Holland and/or Webb and/or Hunter. Feliz vs Harrison might well be a difference of 4 WAR very easily, if you include the possibility of Harrison putting up a negative WAR (again).

The Rangers rotation last yr produced 13.5 WAR, and CJ, Colby, and Cliffly produced 11.5 of that. We can't live with 1.0 WAR on average from each of our #3-#5 starters in 2011. With a bullpen that might not be as strong, we need probably 15 WAR out of our starting rotation to win 90 games again.

So, Harrison isn't my breakout candidate of the yr, obviously, but hey, I'll be pulling for him if he's the man instead of Feliz. Go Rangers!

The bullpen will get their work out through ASB, for sure ...
with a #2 & #3, along with three #4's or 5's ..
we may never see Neftali ... what a waste.
There should have been a Plan'C' this winter ...
Have you ever see a kicked ants nest?

Pull T: I think the reason Joe was wrong is that he didn't type a long enough story to tell why he would have started...We must blame him for Feliz not starting

Not sure why someone impersonated me here with the this quote copied below (it seems pretty dumb and more or less benine). I haven't been on the site for 5 or 6 days. I've decided to check the site about once a week. That way I don't obsessively check back too much.

"Joey is the best. And I really mean that. I love it when he puts in his musical favorites. That really helps me get to know him better. Grant and Newberg are hacks compared to Joey. This site does seem to lean more toward the 'geeky' side of the game though. Not a bad thing-just saying. Those people who like baseball just for the purity of the game don't know what they are missing. Well I better go as there are some who take offense on the length of my posts."

Joey,

Could you remove that post?

The above Joe was impersonating an impersonator, I am actually myself.

Joey,

Could you remove this asshole's shit? Can't you tell I am Joe because of my email?