What is your opinion of the A.J. Pierzynski signing?
MJH on accountability
Top 5 Bats in the AL West per Fangraphs Fan Projections for 2011:1. Josh 5.2 WAR2. Beltre 5.23. Nellie 4.94. Kinsler 4.55. Ken Griffey Jr. 4.4 (Haha!)
Definintely have to take all of that with a grain of salt if they are going to post stupid Griffey numbers in their projections. But it does show nobody out west matches this Rangers lineup for pure firepower, even if most folks expect Josh and Adrian to come back to earth from their amazing numbers in 2010.
The most likely candidates to reach 4 WAR next yr outside of Arlington would be Daric Barton, Torii Hunter, Kendry Morales, Ichiro, and possibly Franklin Guiterrez (who looked like an All-Star in 2009, but not so much in 2010). Only Barton and Ichiro managed to reach 4 WAR in 2010, however.
Morales will provide Hunter some protection, or vice versa, which should help their offense tremendously. Let's certainly hope Beltre joins our lineup and not theirs.
Cliff Pennington had a career yr in 2010 -- nobody expects that from him again. But the A's don't really have any of their normal big weaknesses in the everyday lineup, which is a little scary. If they shore up their bullpen significantly, they could win 88 games.
Within the Rangers lineup, who else besides the above could post 4 WAR? Candidate #1 would be Elvis, and he's a decent bet to do so if his UZR numbers return to 2009 levels -- most would agree his skills weren't really captured by that metric very well in 2010. He's only got to become a little more consistent at getting on base to post a number somewhere over 3.5 WAR, and 4 WAR could happen if he develops some gap power. He had zero HRs and only 15 doubles last yr, which shouldn't be close to his ceiling for a big, strong kid (6'0", 200 lbs).
Elsewhere, it will be interesting to see what MY might do as a full-time DH. He'll never produce more than 2 or 2.5 WAR as a DH, but that would still mean he had a pretty darn good season -- just not enough to justify his current salary. And it will be fun to see what Moreland might be able to do. He was a pleasant surprise in 2010, and if he can post 2.5 WAR in 2011, he'd actually be providing quite a lift to the team compared to what that position contributed last yr.
Within the Rangers lineup, who else besides the above could post 4 WAR? Candidate #1 would be Elvis, and he's a decent bet to do so if his UZR numbers return to 2009 levels -- most would agree his skills weren't really captured by that metric very well in 2010.
This actually drives at one of my lingering issues with the WAR framework -- the reliance upon a single highly variable metric. I've talked before -- and MGL, the creator of UZR, has talked before -- about the issues with using a single year of UZR data for performance/talent evaluation, and yet a single year of UZR data is a key component of the most popular version of WAR. I hope Field f/x eliminates some of this ambiguity.
I think the top Ranger candidate for 4 WAR besides the listed players is Moreland. Such a mature approach to the plate lends itself to at least the outside chance that he moves extra quickly along his development curve. I would be surprised but I wouldn't be stunned by a slash line of .310/.420/.570 which would be a fantastic season. Given enough playing time and some plus plays in the field (a big if, but possible) he could easily manage 4 WAR.
Joey, your comment forced me to read up on Field f/x...interesting read. Hit f/x, too. Of course, you could say the same thing about any statistic that has a randomness that is perhaps beyond the control of the player. BABIP, for instance, is known to vary widely for most pitchers and hitters -- some portion of that is likely to be due to improvements or declines in the player's performance, and some due to randomness -- quantifying a ratio of each component's importance is nearly impossible to measure. Even HR totals yr to yr could be affected by an unusually cool or warm Spring in a certain part of the country. How do you decipher the true level of talent on display objectively?
UZR may be especially volatile because there is some subjectivity of the BIZ and OOZ components that simply depends on who is making the determination. One guy's BIZ can easily be another's OOZ, I would assume, given all the factors of velocity, spin/movement, and positioning that need to be taken into account to really judge whether a play could/couldn't or should/shouldn't have been made. Skill vs Performance/Results evaluations are probably critical to proper decision-making for GMs and their staffs. You may be right that these new scientific processes will make it easier for scouts and fans alike to quickly evaluate talent and effort on display even with only extremely small datasets.
An innovation I'd like to see someday is replacing the home plate umpire with an improved Pitch f/x system. It would need to be extremely reliable from one stadium to the next, however, or you might as well keep what we have.
Griffey would have read about this, but he was asleep in the clubhouse.
If you're talking about top 5 "bats" then you don't really need to use WAR, especially if your point is how strong the Rangers lineup is compared to the rest of the West. For that I'd just use projected slash lines or runs created or something.
The Rangers, with Beltre especially, look quite a bit stronger in terms of offense and defense than most of the division. The A's will have good pitching and defense, but fall short of the lineup. The biggest worry for the Rangers is injuries and rotation depth/innings totals.
.310/.420/.570 is an MVP season lol. I would be incredibly surprised if Moreland did it
Griffey is retired, isn't he? Another reason why WAR is useless.
I think you are mistaking WAR hate for fan hate.
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