What is your opinion of the A.J. Pierzynski signing?
MJH on accountability
I'm new to the WAR metric. It sounds like a really interesting metric and seems to be used in this space more than any other as the primary metric to use when deciding a player's value. Is there one place that has a total team WAR so that I could compare them to see how they come out? i.e. You would assume that if you added each player's WAR that logged ABs and innings for a team last year that the teams with the best regular season records would have the highest WARs and vice versa. Does such an analysis exist in an easy to find place? Please let me know as this would help me decide if I should put as much stock in this metric as everyone seems to here. Thanks.
amigo, go to FanGraphs. Here is the team WAR page:
If you aren't familiar with this website, you should spend some time exploring. The stats are great.
I might also add don't confuse a team's total WAR with how many wins it had. It's not really the same thing.
The numbers look pretty consistent to records, within reason, except for a couple of outliers, namely the Brewers had the 4th best team WAR (29.1), but were 77-85, and to a lesser extent the Diamondbacks had the 11th best team WAR (24.7) and finished at 65-97. I'm just trying to understand what this means. I think I do like the stat, but explain what this disparity means. Does the stat not take defense in to consideration and these teams sucked on D to make up the difference or does it not take situational hitting in to account or pitching with men on type stats so that these teams were full of guys with a bunch of hits with no one on or pitchers who buckle with guys on base or something? Just trying to figure out what all this means. Thanks for the lesson.
Amigo - WAR does account for defense, but it varies greatly from source to source. The two main sources for WAR you'll see here are Fangraphs (FG) and Baseball-Reference (BR). The offensive component of WAR is essentially the same, but there's plenty of defensive differences. FG uses Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) and BR uses Total Zone (TZ). The differences are big enough to make up a 2 win gap between the two sites for Josh Hamilton. To be blunt, defensive metrics are extremely unreliable. This mainly stems from the data that's used as the input for the formulas. When you have 30 different scorekeepers from 30 different stadiums generating your data, you get extremely inconsistent data. They are trying to implement a field f/X system similar to pitch f/X that will gather/measure the data from every single play, but that's still in it's infancy. Even once the system is fully opperational around the league, sabermetricians will have to come up with new formulas to measure how many runs are actually saved. So for now WAR is not all that reliable.
As far as the situational hitting/pitching goes, no. WAR does not account for that, but I don't believe there's ever been a study that shows situational hitting/pitching stats have any predictive value.
Notify me of follow-up comments via email.