I would offer both Guerrero and Francisco arbitration.
50% chance Guerrero accepts, but that's not the end of the world.(7.5-8 million?)
5% chance Francisco accepts and you have a #1.(Somebody will sign him for a 3-year deal as a closer after Soria is gone.)
MC5
If Guerrero declines, you have another #1 and I would go after Berkman. I think he would take $2 million less than from any other team.
MC5
Below are the official Type A&B Free Agents. Type A's cost you your top draft choice if they've been offered arbitration by their former team, but Type B's cost the signing team nothing. That would make a lot of attractive targets on the 1st list a lot less desirable. But, the 2nd list includes Benoit, Wood, and several other relievers. JJ Putz might be interesting to look at. None should be able to get a ton of money from us, however, unless Frankie leaves and either Ogando or Feliz get a shot at the rotation.
There are also several catchers there, including John Buck. I would argue that some of the Type B's will have their phones ringing off the hook all month, while most of fringe Type A's know they aren't going to field many calls from smart GMs.
It makes it tricky also for the Rangers in their dealings with Vlad and Frankie. Are you happy to offer arbitration, knowing either or both might accept, and be in line for more money than you wanted to spend? You could do like Atlanta did last year when Soriano surprised them by accepting their arbitration offer...they traded him to Tampa. But would anybody want to take on Vlad's probable contract at $7-9M?
I'll be surprised if JD goes after any of these Type A's other than maybe Crawford, but he'll be too much for a team not really suffering outfield depth issues. Even Victor Martinez is a stretch for me, tough his bat would be nice. But if he's one of only 2 catchers on the roster, I don't think Wash will let him DH much, because he's always reticent about an injury to the starter during a game that would cause you to suddenly lose your DH the rest of the way...I think he overblows that worry. Plus he wouldn't pull Martinez for defense late in the game for basically the same reasons.
Type A
Bronson Arroyo -- 80.033 - club option
Grant Balfour -- 72.923
Adrian Beltre -- 81.633 - player option
Carl Crawford -- 85.128
Jorge de la Rosa -- 74.422
Scott Downs -- 76.352
Adam Dunn -- 74.167
Frank Francisco -- 73.171
Jason Frasor -- 73.383
Vladimir Guerrero -- 80.000 - mutual option
Matt Guerrier -- 79.569
Ramon Hernandez -- 74.517
Derek Jeter -- 91.304
Paul Konerko -- 78.095
Jason Kubel -- 80.000 - club option
Cliff Lee -- 87.500
Derrek Lee -- 74.167
Ted Lilly -- 80.116
Victor Martinez -- 87.054
Bengie Molina -- 72.321
Magglio Ordonez -- 77.436
Carl Pavano -- 75.568
Andy Pettitte -- 80.492
A.J. Pierzynski -- 80.804
Manny Ramirez -- 76.154
Arthur Rhodes -- 72.229
Mariano Rivera -- 88.830
Takashi Saito -- 69.657
Rafael Soriano -- 91.799
Miguel Tejada -- 76.720
Matt Thornton -- 86.214 - club option exercised
Billy Wagner -- 83.313
Jayson Werth -- 91.807
Dan Wheeler -- 74.673 - club option
Type B
Rod Barajas -- 59.459
Joaquin Benoit -- 66.879
Lance Berkman -- 64.762 - club option declined
John Buck -- 67.411
Orlando Cabrera -- 66.667
Randy Choate -- 62.460
Kevin Correia -- 57.591
Jesse Crain -- 60.657
Johnny Damon -- 74.359
Octavio Dotel -- 66.473
Chad Durbin -- 57.471
David Eckstein -- 65.801
Mark Ellis -- 74.405 - club option
Pedro Feliciano -- 66.855
Brian Fuentes -- 67.055
Jon Garland -- 71.947 - mutual option
Alex Gonzalez -- 61.376 - club option
Kevin Gregg -- 66.967 - club option
Brad Hawpe -- 70.769
Aaron Heilman -- 58.420
Trevor Hoffman -- 62.829 - club option
Orlando Hudson -- 70.238
Aubrey Huff -- 60.000
Omar Infante -- 62.338 - club option
Brandon Inge -- 67.347
Hiroki Kuroda -- 68.152
Gerald Laird -- 60.045
Adam LaRoche -- 61.667 - mutual option
Felipe Lopez -- 67.532 - club option
Mike Lowell -- 62.585
Hideki Matsui -- 73.333
Kevin Millwood -- 58.617
Miguel Olivo -- 65.251 - mutual option
David Ortiz -- 75.000 - club option
Carlos Pena -- 64.762
Jhonny Peralta -- 62.585 - club option
Scott Podsednik -- 69.880 - club option
J.J. Putz -- 62.213
Chad Qualls -- 56.168
Aramis Ramirez -- 63.187 - player option
Jon Rauch -- 69.088
Jose Reyes -- 62.434 - club option
Hisanori Takahashi -- 58.650
Yorvit Torrealba -- 63.900 - mutual option
Koji Uehara -- 68.010
Juan Uribe -- 65.608
Jason Varitek -- 64.732
Javier Vazquez -- 71.970
Kerry Wood -- 62.778 - club option declined