What is your opinion of the A.J. Pierzynski signing?
MJH on accountability
I say the Rangers should offer Hunter, Profar, Erlin, and Boscan. If they like Hunter (who did have a lower ERA than Grienke last year), I think they may not ask for Holland, Scheppers, or Perez. I would refuse to trade any of those three.
@t ball- I don't think my trade suggestion is unreasonable at all. In fact, I think that is a very reasonable offer for Greinke. But I would insist that Texas have a window to negotiate an extension with Greinke, like Halladay last offseason.
Let's say that we trade for Greinke and sign him to, say, a 3 year 51 million dollar extension (17 million a year). That seems reasonable given his previous issued with Social Anxiety Disorder, but his enormous talent. That would mean we would have him for say 5 years for about 78 million dollars. Let's assume he provides us with about 5 WAR per season. At a rough rate of $4 million per WAR, he gives you at lest $20 million in production per year. And given we are a contending team, every additional WAR is worth more to us than to a non-contending team. (For example, JC Bradbury suggests that the additional revenue and probability of making the playoffs make Cliff Lee worth about 10 million more per season than his actual, objective value) So let's assume Greinke is worth about $25 million in value per year to Texas ($5 million more than his actual value since Texas is a contending team)
That means we get $125 million in value relative to our team's position over 5 years while paying out $78 million and the package of players we traded--a difference of $47 million. Consider also that once Greinke leaves, he will still probably net the team 2 first round draft picks. So the question becomes, are Hunter, Perez, Profar, Beltre, and maybe one more player worth 2 first round draft (far in the future) picks and $47 million (or 11-12 WAR). I think the answer is absolutely, yes. And from Kansas City's perspective, Greinke is worth less to them given the fact they aren't contending in the next couple years. And he is unlikely to resign an extension with KC than a team like Texas.
I think people are undervaluing Greinke. He is really, really valuable, especially to a team like Texas. And given that most players peak around 29-30 (see JC Bradbury's research on sabernomics), Greinke arguably hasn't even reached his peak. He could very well be a 7 WAR level player over the next several years. If you can negotiate a long-term extension, Greinke is the kind of player you open up your farm system to acquire.
@Stephen - Hunter, Perez, Profar, and Beltre is comparable to the package we received for Teixeira (if not better). JD would have to be insane to offer something like that.
Now, if that package were for Felix Hernandez, I'd pull the trigger in an instant. Even if you think Felix and Greinke are similar talents, Felix doesn't have the risks associated with social anxiety disorder. Plus I think Felix Hernandez is the best pitcher in baseball right now.
@jd21..."I'd be interested to hear which prospect, Holland or Perez, the Rangers rate more highly right now, and by how much."
Holland isn't a prospect any more and hasn't been since passing the 50 major league innings thrown mark in 2009. And you NEVER value a prospect over a major leaguer (unless said major leaguer is horrible). If the Rangers don't feel Holland is more "valuable" than Perez, whose stock has dropped in many talent evaluators eyes, they have a screw loose.
And I agree with Stephen R...that's a very reasonable package for Greinke. In fact, I'm not sure it's sufficient. And it's NOT a better package than we got for Teixeira. Consider: The Braves handed over their top 3 prospects per Baseball America (Salty, Andrus, and Harrison in order) in that trade, for only two months of Teixeira. John Sickels had them 2, 3, and 4 with Andrus a B+, Salty and Harrison both Bs. Plus a high-ceiling very young arm (Feliz) who wasn't quite on BA's list but Sickel's had at 13 and called a "terrific arm." Plus a prospect who may yet be a useful reliever (Jones).
You suggested Hunter, Profar, Perez, and Beltre. (I doubt the Royals interest in Hunter - they may prefer a different pitcher, but I don't want to play guesswork with who since it's Stephen's trade offer.) BA hasn't released a Rangers prospect ranking since preseason, where Perez was #3 and Profar #5. Beltre wasn't listed at all. But John Sickels released his rankings last week...Profar was #1 (B+), Perez #2 (B+), and Beltre #5 (B-). This for two years of Greinke - a far cry longer than two months of Teixeira. So the prospect rankings are similar, and the package smaller.
Conclusion: That's not a better package than the Teixeira deal at all. Perception is likely that it is, though, because they are today's prospects, rather than those from three years ago. Subsequent performance by those older prospects taints judgment, particularly when it comes to Salty, I would say, and renders comparison difficult for those too emotional about the situation.
If it costs as much as I am seeing on these posts the cost is too great. We can't just trade all of our good young prospects for every free agent that is out there. If I were going to load up for a FA pitcher then it would be King Felix, not Greinke! I think that Greinke is an excellent pitcher but not in the class with Felix. No matter what we think, JD is probably about 10 steps ahead of us. I have great confidence in him after this year in all that he did with bankruptcy, having to clear things with MLB, change of ownership, and most people telling him he couldn't do what he did.
If it costs as much as I am seeing on these posts the cost is too great. We can't just trade all of our good young prospects for every free agent that is out there
Greinke is one of the very best pitchers in baseball. Even in a "down" year, Greinke posted a 5.2 WAR, which places him ahead of such pitchers as Tim Lincecum, Clayton Kershaw, C.C. Sabathia, Roy Oswalt, and Yovani Gallardo. That was 11th best in MLB and 7th best in the AL. And of course in 2009, Greinke had, arguably, one of the best single seasons by a pitcher in recent MLB history. In 2009, Greinke posted 9.4 WAR, a 2.16 ERA, 2.33 FIP, and a 2.59 tERA. Those numbers are just astounding. That is over 2 full WAR better than Cliff Lee posted in his Cy Young season in 2008. Those are numbers that rival Roger Clemens, Pedro Martinez, or Randy Johnson in their peak years. So Greinke is absolutely capable of posting historically good numbers. And most players peak around 29-30, so he is just getting near the typical peak of a player's career. (using sabernomics calculations for statistical peaks)
But even if he doesn't ever match those 2009 numbers again, he is a solid bet to post around 5 WAR a year for the foreseeable future. That would be among the best in baseball year in and year out. Even with the concern about Social Anxiety Disorder, he is the exact kind of player you empty out the farm system to acquire. He is a 27 year old ace with historically good potential, no serious injury concerns, and a desire to pitch long-term for a winning team in a mid-sized market. There couldn't be a better fit than Texas. If Kansas City is willing to let a team negotiate an extension, I'd be willing to give up more. He is that good. The potential upside is unbelievable. I'd rather have Greinke than Cliff Lee going forward. Of course given the fact Greinke will cost a bounty of prospects, I'd probably rather pay for Lee. But I think Greinke may very well out perform Lee in the coming 5 years.
I think if the team can't get Lee, signing Crawford and emptying the farm for Greinke would be the best way to make this team a world series caliber team for the next several years.
Who would you rather have.......Josh Johnson, Matt Cain, or Greinke? I say JJ. And which would hurt us more long term, if we gutted our farm system trading for Greinke who got hurt and left us nothing to show for it, OR if we signed Cliff Lee to a big long term contract and the same happened? Which would we have a better chance to overcome. We seem to be on the right track, so I just want to make decisions that have the least risk at this point.
While I like your WAR analysis, I think you're approaching this backwards. That analysis answers the question "what is the most the Rangers should give up for Greinke". This is, of course, an important question that needs answering. But it's neither the topic of this thread, nor the place for the Rangers to begin their approach to this trade. That would be the question "what is the LEAST the Rangers can give up to get Greinke". And the answer to this question starts from the Royals' perspective.
1) Greinke's value now is X, at the trade deadline it will be Y, and next offseason it will be Z, where Z < Y < X. The Royals will not contend this year, and so it makes considerable sense for them to deal Greinke sooner rather than later.
2) Greinke's value is determined by The Market for top Starting Pitching. The Market for such pitchers is determined by recent deals for similar players. In the last 18 months, there have been 5 such trades; Lee to Philly, Lee to the Ms, Halliday to Philly, Lee to the Rangers, and Oswalt to Philly. What teams have paid in those deals is a pretty good guide to what teams will pay for Greinke.
Tactically, the Rangers should start with 2 of 3 from Holland, Scheppers, and Profar. Based on those 5 previous deals, that puts them in the conversation with any other offer. A combination of young MLers (Hunter) and lower-tier prospects (Weiland, Font, etc) rounds out an offer. Given the youth of the Rangers' Big League club, plus a Farm System that is very strong and perhaps stronger in depth than it is in star talent, as well as the Rangers' perch at the edge of greatness, it should be relatively easy for the Rangers to have the top offer.
Once they have the top offer, STOP BIDDING AGAINST YOURSELVES. If the Royals, at that point, decide to keep Greinke, fine. Then go get him at the trade deadline, when the strike price on a trade has nowhere to go but down from here.
It might be worth Perez, Scheppers, Beltre, and Profar to get Greinke. But it isn't neccesary to trade them all to get Greinke. The Royals will NOT get a better offer than Holland, Hunter, Profar, Font, Max Ramirez, and Pedro Strop (or some similar package, perhaps with Scheppers for Holland, or Erlin for Font, etc) for Greinke. That's what the past 2 seasons' trade market tells us. Time is on our side, because Greinke's value declines every time he makes a start in a Royals' uniform. If they want a lot more than market for Greinke, let them spend some time envisioning themselves wearing a "Greinke left via Free Agency and all I got were these 2 lousy draft picks" T-shirt. Make the best offer, and stop bidding.
@geo - just keep in mind that Atlanta traded for ~1.5 seasons of Teixeira. They realized they weren't going anywhere and traded him away, but it's essentially the same amount of time we would have with Greinke if we popped him at the trade deadline in 2011. Oh, and I still firmly believe that Hunter, Perez, Profar, and Beltre is way too much to give up for Greinke.
It might be worth Perez, Scheppers, Beltre, and Profar to get Greinke. But it isn't neccesary to trade them all to get Greinke. The Royals will NOT get a better offer than Holland, Hunter, Profar, Font, Max Ramirez, and Pedro Strop (or some similar package, perhaps with Scheppers for Holland, or Erlin for Font, etc) for Greinke
Of course. You don't just run in and offer the most you possibly can. But I was just demonstrating that people seem to be undervaluing Greinke. He is a TORP of the highest caliber. You obviously try to get him for the least possible package.
But I think my ceiling would be a little higher than some people here. It is also worth noting that my suggestion earlier in this thread (Hunter, Perez, Profar, Beltre) was based on the assumption that Profar was a B- level prospect equivalent to Beltre. Given that Sickel's recent Rangers prospect rankings that put Profar as a B+/A- make me rethink that offer significantly. I was clearly undervaluing Profar, who is admittedly a largely unknown quantity with large potential but little track record.
The thing about it, though, is that, given the market rate at the moment, if they REALLY demanded we go near your ceiling, we should probably look at other TORP options, because they can be had in the marketplace for the type of offer I've suggested. For what you've offerred, I would bet we could get King Felix, for example. Or maybe a Verlander. Or Josh Johnson.
So while I certainly think it might be worth it, I think the reason we've all zeroed in on Greinke in the first place is the notion that he's gettable at a reasonable price. If that turns out not to be the case, the Rangers should probably shop every TORP out there before just going to the ceiling for Greinke.
But I get your general point.
One of the things that I disagree with is this sentiment that trading away good prospects is bad baseball business. The reason that you have these prospects is for their leverage in acquiring *established, major league ready* talents. The Rangers are not concerned about 2014, nor should they be. Cross that bridge when it gets here. Every single effort should be made to win, and win with this team. If you can acquire a Greinke, and actually have him under control for a few seasons of this window, then why not? I mean, realistically how soon will Profor be ready to contribute. Isn't Beltre's perceived value dropping more and more with each off season that comes? Perhaps including both Perez and Scheppers is too much.
However, you do not get premium talent for anything more than a rental, without giving good players in return. MLB established stars > possible future MLB stars
I think the lingering effect of the Tom Hicks years is still casting the malaise over the fanbase here. We do not have Yankee money, but neither are we the 1997 Marlins. We won't have to field budget teams full of homegrowns only. We should never be lower than the league average payroll anytime soon. There is more margin of error than ever before maybe.
If all of the following pitchers were available in trade for Profor, Perez/or/ Scheppers, and Beltre I would pull the trigger immediately, and in this order of precedence.1) King Felix (the best, better than CC and Cliff imho)2)Josh Johnson3)Greinke
Beltre's value had been dropping, but bounced back this season as he seemed to figure a few things out after a promotion to AA. I'd trade Perez if need be for any of the 3 best young pitchers in baseball, which, in my opinion are Lincecum, Felix, Johnson, in that order. Greinke and Verlander would be next. But the key is ballance. Profar is 17 and we have Elvis. He's a trade chip. Perez was at AA last year and has true TORP written all over him, imho. Don't deal him. He arrives in 2012 and sits atop the rotation for 6-10 years. A young Santana, I think. Don't deal him for 2 years of another TORP when you can get similar quality players for less.
Beltre I would trade if need be, but I worry about the disturbing lack of high-minors positional talent. Given the Rangers' payroll, to compete with the NYYs, BOSs, and LAAs, we're going to need a few cheap stars to go with some pricier players. Also, Beltre should be no worse than a league average CF because his defensive tools (at a premium defensive position) seem to be more or less in place. I'd be much more willing to deal Borbon.
Don't give away trade chips cheaply, though. Scheppers, Holland, and Profar are valuable commodities. Deal them for value only. And the market says value for them is roughly 2 plus supplemental pieces for a TORP. I'd probably trade all 3 for Greinke if push came to shove. But not Perez AND 2 or 3 other top-shelf prospects.
You can see, with all the names you guys are throwing out there, that the Rangers are stacked. It does no good to sit on this players for two or three years because only one will make the majors and stick plus by 2014 there's already another crop to be talked about the same way....especially from picks gained from Vlad, Molina and Lee.It's about winning now because with the right moves the big club can be right there for at least a five year run.
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I agree completely with you. Perez, Profar, Beltre, Sardinas, Font, Scheppers, Ross; all these players are not going to grow into MLB superstars. The list can go on for the Rangers and its depth, but very few prospects reach their highest ceiling. It is about winning now. The Rangers need to trade prospects because their best chance to win a World Series is now. The farm will be built back up as long as JD is around so I'm not worried about sending some talent off.
I would offer:PerezSardinasFontBorbon
I would like to see them keep Lee and still get Greinke, but I realize that wont happen. As of right now Wilson and Lewis are the Rangers only sure bet starters; that's a little scary to see from the AL Champs.
An offer of Perez, Sardinas, Font, and Borbon gets JD hung up on.
Per Jayson Stark at ESPN, the Royals are asking for a Teixeira-type deal including multiple quality players, one of which needs to have "Greinke-like upside." Make what you will of that.
Food for thought:
"According to Bob Elliott of the Toronto Sun, the Blue Jays have inquired about the availability of Zack Greinke.The Royals are reportedly looking for two "can't-miss prospects" in exchange for their ace right-hander."
Ok, I've really enjoyed the back and for th here and I realize that we're having fun with hypotheticals, but Josh Johnson has been mentioned several times and the Rangers tried to get him once already. JD asked about him and said he could give more if the Marlins wanted to deal Johnson in the Cantu deal. The Marlins said that Josh Johnson isn't availabe. Josh Johnson is untouchable. If you are going to mention Josh Johnson as a trade possibility then why not include Tim Lincecum, cause it's not happening.
I love the Greinke talk because it's realistic that we could get this guy. If there is a way to get it done without crippling the system, and I believe it is, then JD is the man to get it done.
As to Rodney's post and the Royals wanting to get 2 can't miss prospects, would Profar fit this bill? I know a lot of us on here are really high on him but the Rangers have Elvis for several more years and by the time Elvis will be ready for free agency wouldn't Sardinas or Luis Marte be in line about that time?
I'm personally ok with a deal for Greinke starting with Perez and Profar, and I'm REALLY comfortable with a deal for Greinke starting with Scheppers and Profar. Just my 2 cents.
PerezSardinasBorbonHunterTeagardenIf they dont accept I wait until they see theres no better offers and i take Sardinas off the table and laugh.
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