What is the least we'd have to give away to get him from the Royals for 2011 and 2012?

Scheppers + Holland + Font + Sardinas + Ross

Holland, Profar, Castillo, Brigham

Scheppers, Profar, and their choice of Hunter and Omar Beltre gets them interested. 3-4 lesser prospects seals the deal. Maybe Scheppers, Profar, Hunter, Weiland, Max Ramirez, Osvipo De Los Santos, Chad Tracey.

Greinke is a lost cause.

Those prices are too steep IMO

Holland, Profar, Castillo, Brigham

Pretty much what I was guessing.

How much do you think that comes down by the 2011 trade deadline?

It sucks that the Rangers can't afford $100M in payroll. If we could, and we could get Lee for say $22M, I'd give up the players you name for Greinke (his $13.5M in '11 pushing us to right around $100M at that point (assuming no Vlad and Hamilton/Cruz getting healthy arbitration upgrades)).

Hmmm, the price might come down a bit by the deadline, but so much depends on, well, everything else that happens between now and then. I won't say the Rangers can't sign Lee until the press conference. Maybe the deadline price is more like Holland, Profar and Brigham. It's still a season and a half, so I think dropping a late innings bullpen guy from the price might make sense. Maybe you could get them to take a couple of younger arms instead of Profar (and you'd certainly try not to put in Profar if possible.)

Greinke makes me just a bit nervous. His history is unique; he reportedly won't accept a trade to the Yankees, and some reports even say "to a big market team". If he accepts a trade to the Rangers, can he withstand the pressure of leading a rotation in the playoffs? It's risky.

I think that the Rangers clubhouse has some good mojo right now, with all the players seeming to be supportive of each other. If Hamilton can thrive there, then maybe Greinke can as well. Maybe the presence of Lewis and Wilson (if they maintain their high level) encourage him to be one of the guys and not feel like he has to carry them. OTOH, maybe the challenge of stepping up is just what he wants and needs. Who knows? He's going to be fascinating to watch when he's dealt wherever he goes.

Greinke represents a risk. On the orther hand, a young CYA winner who truly wants noithing to do with the Yankees/Red Sox represents a unique opportunity I'm very interested in.

I like it that he will not want to go to the Yankees, he would rather play at a place like the Rangers, which is just fine with me. Here is what I would give up:
1) One of either Scheppers, Font, Holland, Perez
2) Sandinas or Profor
3) Chris Davis
4) Another pitching prospect (Brigham, Ross, Erlin, Hurley, Boscan, etc.)
5) Another everyday prospect not named Engel Beltre
That gets the deal done and does not hurt us that much. That is why we have depth. Also, the signing of the young SS makes me think that Sandinas or Profor will be included in a trade for an impact player (bat/C or young stud pitcher).

No Perez, no way, no how. Everyone/everything else should be on the table.

Don't want Greinke. He may have already had his best year (2009) and we need to keep our current pitching prospects.

He may have already had his best year (2009)

Sure, but he's still very good. He had the 9th best xFIP (3.76) among AL starters in 2010. He's had 3 straight very good, injury-free seasons in a row and is still very young.

Scooby Dude,

I understand the Perez thing, but I would then take him off #1 player and propose the rest. I really don't want to give up Scheppers or Font, but I think realistically, we will have to give up someone from #1 to get Greinke, which I don't have a problem with anymore. All 4 I think is going to be a TORP or a closer/8th inning guy, which is very important.

I'd pass on him...don't need to build a whole team around head cases.

Unless the Royals are convinced that Scheppers is a starter (and they'd be in the minority if they do), he wouldn't be the centerpiece of a Greinke trade. I think they would prefer Holland.

And forget Chris Davis too. The Royals already have Billy Butler and Kila Ka'aihue handling 1B/DH, with Eric Hosmer about another season away. Plus the Texas League triple crown winner in Clint Robinson. They wouldn't want Davis for third base either; that will belong to Mike Moustakas starting probably next June.

Brigham? Castillo? Don't make me laugh. These guys aren't even top prospects. The Royals don't HAVE to trade Greinke, remember; he's under contract for two more years. And contrary to the popular notion of many, he has not asked for a trade. Nor have the Royals "put him on the block." They merely said they would listen to offers. You know what? That's exactly the same thing they said about him LAST offseason. They will have to be blown out of the water with an offer, and the lesser prospects ain't gonna cut it.

I think Tanner Scheppers is the kind of guy that you package in a trade like this. I'm not saying I really want to trade for Greinke or that I dislike Scheppers. I'm merely stating that Scheppers is an ideal candidate for a trade. I think we're all enthralled by his talent, but he's a prime candidate to explode onto the scene and then have his shoulder explode on the field. I'd love to see him have a long productive career as a Ranger, but I think the odds of him making a major contribution are better in a trade.

I maintain that the following offer would be good for both organizations and woukd be accepted by the Royals:

A) choice of Hunter or Omar Beltre

B) choice of Holland or Scheppers

C) choice of Profar and Font or Profar and Erlin or Sardinas and Font and Erlin

D) Max Ramirez

E) Pedro Strop or similar

F) Chad Tracy or similar

@geo - Castillo has scouts talking, and he looks like a quality late innings guy, and Brigham has good upside. They may not be "top prospects" but Holland and Profar are VERY well regarded young players, and Castillo and Brigham are nothing to sneeze at even if you don't like them much. Call them "lesser prospects" if you like, but they are FAR from worthless, and if you add them to Holland and Profar you have a formidable package.

t ball, I didn't say they were worthless. But the Royals have said that to trade Greinke they will have to get a package of young major leaguers and / or elite prospects, and Castillo and Brigham do not qualify. Neither of them even makes the Rangers top 20 prospect list. They are throw-ins.

Derek Holland, Matt Harrison, Pedro Strop, and Wilmer Font. No other MLB team will top that offer in pitching talent.

@geo, but Holland and Profar are elite level young players. The Royals should not expect, nor will anyone offer, more than two elite level players. Holland and Profar are as juicy as just about any two players another team would be willing to deal. Castillo and Brigham are nice throw ins, prospects with a chance to contribute meaningfully at the major league level even if they aren't elite.

I don't know if that package gets the deal done, but if it cost too much more than that I wouldn't make the deal.

Realistically, I think the best offer I would make would be Tommy Hunter, Martin Perez, Jurickson Profar, Engel Beltre and maybe one more player.

I think that gives the Royals a starter with a deceptively good track record in Hunter to show off to the less knowledgeable of their fan base. Perez, Profar, and Beltre provide high ceiling prospects, with at least one potential A level prospect in Perez. I would even be tempted to offer both a package of simply Perez, Scheppers + for Greinke, but that might be pushing it.

The bottom line is that Greinke is only 27, he is a good bet to put up somewhere north of 5 WAR for the next two years. He seems like he would be receptive to an extension in a mid-sized market with a winning team like Texas. And his potential upside/durability match the likes of Cliff Lee. Our window for contention is open right now and may very well close in a couple years. I'd target Greinke regardless of what happens with Lee. If we get Lee and Greinke, great. We then have the best rotation in baseball. If Lee spurns us, then we have Greinke atop our rotation and two first round draft picks coming our way to compensate for losing Lee. Either way, I'd do what it takes to get Greinke.

Stephen, if it takes that much I'm not interested. I'm not giving up Perez, Profar AND Beltre, in addition to Hunter.

I'd be interested to hear which prospect, Holland or Perez, the Rangers rate more highly right now, and by how much. I'm assuming it's Perez, and I'm assuming we shouldn't pay attention to Perez's numbers this past year because he was working on things, but I'd like to hear it from the Rangers that he's just as well thought of as previously. Anyway, my package would include the lesser of those two, along with Scheppers, Hunter, Beltre, and their choice of someone like Font or Wieland. It will take a whole lot.